5PM JEANNE MAP

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[tracyswfla]

Don't worry, that will probably change dramatically, just like Ivan.

[jpigott]

don't worry, the safest place to be is where they have her forecasted 5 days from now

[ColdFront77]

.....with that said, at this time, Jeanne has the potential to make landfall along the southern, south-central or central Florida east coast; as it does points north.

[krisj]

Well, my parents live on Hilton Head and they have informed me that, "hurricanes don't come here" and so since parents are always right....

Actually, it is farther south than before and if it isn't that big of a storm then we may get nothing here in Charleston.
My parents had a sunny day when Gaston came through.

[Brent]

I'm in the cone.

[Foladar]

I'm in the cone.

I think everyone is.

[air360]

ok, maybe the difference in a day or to helps...but if you look at the tracks of ivan and jeanne....they basically slam into each other over SC. ivan will be drifting south into SC on sunday and then if this path for jeanne validates then she will slam right into the remains of ivan on tuesday....can this happen or will they kinda like roll one way or another around each other?

[Guest]

Go out to sea! Nobody wants you Jeanne.
...Jennifer...

[krisj]

I just noticed it is a tropical storm and not a hurricane anymore.

[air360]

yes it is right now becuase it has been over land but it will be back into hurricane status sometime very soon...most likely tonight or tomorrow

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 16, 2004



the initial motion is 275/7 as Jeanne continues to edge inland over
the northeastern Dominican Republic. Despite its trek over
land...it has been maintaining a well-defined eye visible on the
San Juan NWS radar with excellent banding features. Cloud tops
have warmed however...and it is presumed that the winds have
dropped just below hurricane strength.
The previous official forecast was a compromise between the
right-leaning GFS and left-leaning GFDL models. This
afternoon...the GFS shifted westward and the GFDL shifted
eastward...significantly narrowing the guidance envelope. The
official forecast has not been changed much from the previous
advisory. Global guidance is a little more consistent in showing
that the remnants of Ivan will be close enough to the southeast
U.S. Coast to deflect Jeanne's track to the right in 2-3 days.
However...building heights over the northeast U.S. In about 5 days
are expecte to prevent Jeanne from recurving out to sea. With the
five day forecast point near the U.S. Coastline...this might be a
good time to remind everyone that the average five day NHC official
forecast error is about 375 miles...in other words...it is still
too soon to be sure what portion of the United States might be
affected by Jeanne.

The upper environment around Jean is characterized by a highly
divergent flow that would favor strengthening after Jeanne clears
Hispaniola. The official forecast remains close to the SHIPS and
GFDL guidance.
Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/2100z 19.0n 69.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 17/0600z 19.5n 70.7w 50 kt
24hr VT 17/1800z 20.4n 72.3w 50 kt
36hr VT 18/0600z 21.4n 73.9w 60 kt
48hr VT 18/1800z 22.5n 75.0w 65 kt
72hr VT 19/1800z 25.0n 77.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 20/1800z 28.5n 78.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 21/1800z 32.0n 80.5w 80 kt



80 kts = 92 MPH... so IF it stays the same, expect a STRONG CAT 1 or maybe a WEAK CAT 2... but it is still too far out to tell...

[Foladar]

yes it is right now becuase it has been over land but it will be back into hurricane status sometime very soon...most likely tonight or tomorrow

not if it stays going west

[yoda]

yes it is right now becuase it has been over land but it will be back into hurricane status sometime very soon...most likely tonight or tomorrow

not if it stays going west

It is turning back WNW... the eye (or center) is almost back out over water...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

My worry is the NHC HAS NOT BEEN WRONG HERE RECENTLY!!

[Canelaw99]

My worry is the NHC HAS NOT BEEN WRONG HERE RECENTLY!!

Actually, they have been slightly off on the initial 5 day forecasts....I'd rely a little more on the 3 day ones...

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

My worry is the NHC HAS NOT BEEN WRONG HERE RECENTLY!!

Actually, they have been slightly off on the initial 5 day forecasts....I'd rely a little more on the 3 day ones...

Slightly doesnt amount to 2 states away from me!!

[Canelaw99]

LOL Charleston - in some of these cases, it might...remember that initially, we (Miami area) were in the potential track for Ivan...yes, it still hit near FL, but on the complete opposite corner of the state! If I were up there in your shoes, I'd be happy to be in the 5 day track at this point I think LOL