Miami AFD-here we go

[jlauderdal]

well this isnt exactly a huge vote of confidence for this thing to pass by harmlessly. i would prefer the ridging wasnt in place instead of having to rely on a weakening ivan to knock down heights.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...JEANNE IS THE
BIG FORECAST PROBLEM. ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS JEANNE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH GOOD HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING AT
H8 AND H7. THIS KEEPS JEANNE ON A MORE WESTWARD PATH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IVAN MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND DRAWS JEANNE ON A MORE
NORTHWARD PATH. AT PRESENT THE STORM IS SMALL AND IT SHOULD HAVE
SOME TROUBLE WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...BUT WE MAY HAVE SOME
KIND OF WATCH WITH WHICH TO DEAL AT SOME POINT POSSIBLY SUNDAY. IF
JEANNE DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE WITH HISPANIOLA...THAT WOULD BE A
TESTAMENT TO THE POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SCENARIO KEEPS JEANNE OFFSHORE WITH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN A NORTHEAST FLOW BACKING TO NORTHWEST AS JEANNE
MOVES EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE METRO EAST COAST WOULD BE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE STORM ASSUMING THIS FORECAST TRACK.

[mascpa]

Is this good news or bad news for SFl.?

[jlauderdal]

Is this good news or bad news for SFl.?

i dont like the fact it will be so close and we know there is error and they certainly dont sound real confident in the nhc track..in fact the nhc isnt that confident in their track.

[wabbitoid]

Is this good news or bad news for SFl.?

They don't know,
we don't know,
nobody knows.



Everything that happens is, however, a Jimmy Buffet song. Landfall near Biloxi would have made it complete.

Jeanne, so far, seems like this old song to me:

"My head hurts, my feet stink, and I don't love Jesus.
It's that kind of mornin', really was that kind of night.
Tryin' to tell myself that my condition is improving,
And if I don't die by Thursday I'll be roarin' Friday night."

[WaryEye]

" Nobody Knows " Now THAT'S a shocker! Nobody ever knows.

[Kludge]

Seems that if Hispaniola does significant damage to Jeanne, it would behave more like a wave... and hence retain more of a westward track. Those wanting a fish (if any exist on this board ) should probably hope she comes off the island unscathed.

Kludge

[donsutherland1]

Jlauderdal,

This is a good discussion. I believe that the scenario where Jeanne would pass harmlessly out to sea and avoid any U.S. landfall is the least likely (see earlier thread).

While most of the guidance shows somewhat of a turn more to the north, I would not be surprised if the turn is more gradual and a little later than the model consensus.

Thus, if I had to pick some coordinates for the very near-term, I'd probably place Jeanne around:

19.0N 70.0W
20.0N 72.5W

This is quite a bit south of the model guidance. If such a track were realized early on, it could be an indication that the later track, especially as the ridge builds westward, might well be farther south than that of Hugo (1989).

Note: When I'm referring to Hugo, I'm referring strictly to Hugo's track and not intensity. By the time Hugo had entered the Caribbean, Hugo had already attained Category 5 status previously and was a very powerful hurricane. Jeanne is nothing compared to Hugo at this point in time and I don't believe she will ever rival Hugo in terms of strength.

[sfwx]

Part of the Melboure discussion this afternoon.......

MON-THU...FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DEPENDANT UPON FUTURE
MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF A HURRICANE...THIS ONE NAMED JEANNE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH MOVEMENT WNW THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THIS TIME...GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A
MORE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS
TRACK PRESENTS A POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR THE SE U.S. COAST NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG/LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND AND EXTEND FAR OFFSHORE...BLOCKING FURTHER NORTHWARD MOTION
OF HURRICANE JEANNE. 16/15Z NHC FORECAST BRINGS OUTER TS WIND RADII
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND BRUSHING
PORTIONS OF CWA COAST MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY
WILL BE SHOWN WITHIN 4PM ZFP/CWF PACKAGE...USERS MUST REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE FORECASTS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE INHERENTLY CONTAIN LARGE
ERRORS...AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY CHANGE. ASSUMING JEANNE
REMAINS E/NE OF THE AREA...DAILY RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK WILL BE
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.




SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM...SPRATT

[ColdFront77]

MON-THU...FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DEPENDANT UPON FUTURE
MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF A HURRICANE...THIS ONE NAMED JEANNE.

What a way to put it.