Good news regarding Jeanne

[x-y-no]

Great link, Sqally. Thanks.

[Sanibel]

Maybe the remnants will reform, but even if they do this track is well south and will only crash into Cuba. Right now it looks to be moving right towards Pico Duarte and the 10,000 foot heights.

Will a minimal hurricane "kill hundreds"?

[Squally]

Thanks x-y-no. Glad to contribute

[BlueNole]

its crossing some 10K mountains, Now,w e can expect a few hundred deaths, which is not good news, but this storm now has little chance of bieng a major for the USA now that it is crossing the very high terrain

Derek, I have read and appreciated your analysis regarding the various storms the past month. I am also sensitive to the amount of labor you have invested in performing your analyses, and enlightening those of us who rely on this board for information. In that regard, you have excelled in providing reasoned conclusions based on empiracle information, combined with your experience and research skills. For those reasons, I am miffed by your expectation of "a few hundred deaths" by this minimal strength storm (relatively speaking) at a time when you have given us no data as to how you computed that forcast of death. I wasn't born yesterday, and I am sure you know that the Carribean storms resulting in "a few hundred deaths" can be counted on hands without the need to included toes. Consequently, can you share with us how you derive at your forcasted figure, as well as your justification for that horrible event in a relatively minimal strength storm?? Thank you.

[Derek Ortt]

I never said it wasnt a cane threat. Please read more carefully. I said unlikely for a major cane, not a cat 1 or 2 as this will likely be a 1 or a 2, but not a 3 or above

[Derek Ortt]

flooding and mudslides, especially in haiti which has been deforested.

earlier this year, a mere tropical/subtrop disturbance killed more than 3,000 on this island. ths is moving slower than a buffalo sabres defenseman, so we can expect severe flooding in the mountains

[RichG]

Blue nole,

You have to understand that a bad rainstorm on Hispanola can easily kill hundreds. The land is horribly deforrested and overpopulated..etc. He was just stating the obvious for folks who know the area. You probably are not aware that folks die in Haiti all the time due to mudslides and such as the media doesn't really cover the stories that much. Keep up the great work Derek.

[mf_dolphin]

Thread edited and unlocked....

[SeaBrz_FL]

ATTENTION NORTHERNERS. DO NOT COME TO FLORIDA....it's closed for repairs.

WXWATCHER2! Surely you're kidding, right!!? Please don't spread that message, otherwise you and I are both going to be paying state income taxes next year.

[SouthernWx]

The last check it appeared Jeanne was skirting along the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic. On this projected course....near the north coast over relatively low terrain, then offshore WNW toward Great Inagua, I don't expect much weakening. In fact, Jeanne may intensify rather quickly once moving offshore into the warm waters between Haiti and the Bahamas.

If I lived along the SE U.S. coast....especially from Charleston southward to the Florida Keys, I'd keep a very close eye on Jeanne. The outflow pattern and low shear forecast 3-5 days down the road suggest we may have yet another intense hurricane somewhere nearing the U.S.....possibly turning westward into the coast (because of blocking high pressure over New England).

[wxman57]

Looks like Jeanne's center took a NW jog to get partially back over water this afternoon. I don't think it likes land. Might just hug thr northern coast of the DR.

[Anonymous]

If hundreds die, the name Jeanne dies as well.

[MGC]

Hurricane David and Georges dances with Hispanola's mountains and lost. Both never regained major status after the mountains. The difference is Jeanne is still organizing and didn't have as developed circulation structure as a major hurricane. Once Jeanne gets back over the water it will depend on upper environment to determine if she will make major. I doubt it but it is possible.....MGC

[Scorpion]

I wouldnt write Jeanne off quite yet. I think it has defied many peoples expectations and it is holding together quite well. It also looks like she may miss the "graveyard". Also the fact that she is still weak and forming, the graveyard may actually have less of an effect than say an already formed storm. Just throwing in my 2 cents.

[Anonymous]

Hurricane David and Georges dances with Hispanola's mountains and lost. Both never regained major status after the mountains. The difference is Jeanne is still organizing and didn't have as developed circulation structure as a major hurricane. Once Jeanne gets back over the water it will depend on upper environment to determine if she will make major. I doubt it but it is possible.....MGC

No....
Jeanne will restrengthen because she NEVER WENT over the mountains to begin with. He not having a major hurricane structure or LLC is irrelevant.

[rbaker]

as i sit here and read this thread i have the luxury of 6 hrs later seeing jeanne moving (like it has vision) to glide along the coastline. If this in fact holds true, I wouldn't say that Jeanne wouldn't become a major cane.

[Derek Ortt]

the latest sats do have me concerned. However, I am confident from studies that this will turn back to the west due to mountain influence, it is possible that this wont occur until clearing hispaniola, keeping the system near the coast or offshote, meaning a stronger cane for the mainland

[Rainband]

the latest sats do have me concerned. However, I am confident from studies that this will turn back to the west due to mountain influence, it is possible that this wont occur until clearing hispaniola, keeping the system near the coast or offshote, meaning a stronger cane for the mainland

Not good news down the road

[Anonymous]

If there is good news it is that Jeanne has a very small core, so damage should be isolated to the coast of the DR. most of the rainfall seems to be to the east of the system.

[BlueNole]

Blue nole,

You have to understand that a bad rainstorm on Hispanola can easily kill hundreds. The land is horribly deforrested and overpopulated..etc. He was just stating the obvious for folks who know the area. You probably are not aware that folks die in Haiti all the time due to mudslides and such as the media doesn't really cover the stories that much. Keep up the great work Derek.

My point is that the subject line beginning "good news" followed by "hundreds of deaths" --w/o any explanation for why this is GOOD NEWS--is contrary to what I have become accustomed to on this otherwise great board. Derek's post following mine doesn't help explain the matter FWIW. The forum demands backup, and I was surprised to see Derek's statement with no substantive information in response to my inquiry regarding his dire prediction of fatalities, in view of his prior inclusion of data when strength and direction of storm is discussed. I was just taken by what seemed to be casual inclusion of a multitude of deaths w/o backup justification when Derek makes no prediction of wind strength/direction without the same. Sucks, basically.

Thanks,
BlueNole