Not So Super of Late..

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Aquawind
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Not So Super of Late..

#1 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:29 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/internet/0 ... index.html
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dennis1x1

#2 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:53 pm

lol....precisely predicting landfall 72 hours in advance?


WHO NEEDS EM!!!



*rolling eye thingy*
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#3 Postby Pebbles » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:54 pm

Interesting article..thanks for sharing Aquawind.
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#4 Postby Wthrman13 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 2:12 pm

That was a surprisingly good article on NWP for the likes of CNN.
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:55 pm

I just had to add this after being in the cone for so long and seeing what happened with Ivan..Even the 2 and 3 day forecasts from the NHC were off as it was pointing for the Eastern Gulf for a long time..

On Saturday the 10th 5am Forecast:

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.3N 80.1W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 82.5W

Actual:
12/0600Z THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N... 80.4 W
13/0600Z THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 83.5 W

So the 48 hour forecast was ~62 miles N and ~20 miles E of actual.
The 72 hour forecast was ~150 N and ~69 E.

Can't always trust those 2 and three days even...much more so the 4 and 5 day forecasts..It took them 36 hours to adjust the forecast to the NW of the Isle of Youth and it was never even close to that..Talk about the model ride... :roll:

Not bashing the NHC whatsoever..They are awesome usually..

Fortran woah...darn near chisel and hammer....lol..similar results sometimes.. :roll:
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