Jeanne--Northwestern Bahamas v. So Fl.?

[guanaskip]

5day has it over Abaco/Freeport area. They sure don't need another one after Frances.
Any thoughts re it going west (as if Florida needed more wind and rain)
Seems like GFDL and FSU Super want to send it there and away from Northern Bahamas?

[Weatherboy1]

To be honest, it's too early to say. In some degrees, this storm is like Frances in terms of path. W or WNW path, followed by a slowing and turn to the NW and/or N expected, then possibly a shove back to the west as a ridge rebuilds to the storm's north. The devil, as always, is in the details. Will the storm turn very sharply, therefore staying offshore? Will the move to the NW/N be slow or fast? Where exactly will Jeanne be when the ridge re-establishes itself to her north? And last but not least, will she even survive her trek across Hispaniola?

Clearly, there are too many questions and not enough answers right now. To me, the odds are increasing of a FL threat given model trends (some of the east-most models like NOGAPS and the BAMMs have shifted west) and the shift in the official forecast. I also tend to believe that the SW Atlantic ridge will prove to be stronger than some models anticipate, as it has been ever since the massive east coast trough pattern vanished in mid-August. But I'm certainly not getting worried here in SE FL. Just watchful. Hope this helps...

[jlauderdal]

To be honest, it's too early to say. In some degrees, this storm is like Frances in terms of path. W or WNW path, followed by a slowing and turn to the NW and/or N expected, then possibly a shove back to the west as a ridge rebuilds to the storm's north. The devil, as always, is in the details. Will the storm turn very sharply, therefore staying offshore? Will the move to the NW/N be slow or fast? Where exactly will Jeanne be when the ridge re-establishes itself to her north? And last but not least, will she even survive her trek across Hispaniola?

Clearly, there are too many questions and not enough answers right now. To me, the odds are increasing of a FL threat given model trends (some of the east-most models like NOGAPS and the BAMMs have shifted west) and the shift in the official forecast. I also tend to believe that the SW Atlantic ridge will prove to be stronger than some models anticipate, as it has been ever since the massive east coast trough pattern vanished in mid-August. But I'm certainly not getting worried here in SE FL. Just watchful. Hope this helps...

hey you flip flopped already..yesterday you had staying away from florida

[x-y-no]

Well, at the risk of drawing the dreaded "w" word label, I'm finding the westward solution more and more persuasive the more I look at it.

[Weatherboy1]

hey you flip flopped already..yesterday you had staying away from florida

You're right ... yesterday, I saw this as less of a FL threat. Based on what I'm seeing today, I'm thinking the threat is increasing. Unlike in the political arena (and OFFICIAL tropical storm forecasting), in tropical message board posting, you're allowed to process new information and come to different conclusions! Seriously, though, the newer model runs, synoptic setup and other factors have me paying closer attention today than yesterday. But still not really worried based on the fact that ...

1) she COULD just get ripped apart by Hispaniola
2) she COULD still turn early enough to spare FL
3) she probably WON'T have a lot of un-inhibited, completely-over-water time to strengthen significantly. On a WNW track, she'll spend most of today and this evening over land. Then, she'll still be close to Cuba, Andros Island, etc. Some of these land masses are less threatening than others. But the key is, there are forces that should prevent her from ballooning into some kind of Ivan-like monster.

[jlauderdal]

hey you flip flopped already..yesterday you had staying away from florida

You're right ... yesterday, I saw this as less of a FL threat. Based on what I'm seeing today, I'm thinking the threat is increasing. Unlike in the political arena (and OFFICIAL tropical storm forecasting), in tropical message board posting, you're allowed to process new information and come to different conclusions! Seriously, though, the newer model runs, synoptic setup and other factors have me paying closer attention today than yesterday. But still not really worried based on the fact that ...

1) she COULD just get ripped apart by Hispaniola
2) she COULD still turn early enough to spare FL
3) she probably WON'T have a lot of un-inhibited, completely-over-water time to strengthen significantly. On a WNW track, she'll spend most of today and this evening over land. Then, she'll still be close to Cuba, Andros Island, etc. Some of these land masses are less threatening than others. But the key is, there are forces that should prevent her from ballooning into some kind of Ivan-like monster.

yep...lots of scenarios, she has to survive first.

[jabber]

NHC seems pretty confident she will make it

[Weatherboy1]

Just as a heads up, all the models that update in mid-afternoon are in. GFDL shifted further east by about 75-100 miles. The BAM models shifted further west, with the BAMD putting Jeanne ashore in the same area as Frances (but running almost parallel to the coast, as opposed to crossing the state). The UKMET looks roughly the same as before.

One key feature of the global models: They show a turn to the W or NW late in the period. This is true for the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS. This is because a strong high pressure will build in once Ivan dissipates or gets shunted N and NE. The key is, when will that happen. For at least a couple days, he should weaken the SW extent of the Atlantic ridge. If Jeanne moves slowly, she'll likely just turn slowly into that weakness and eventually get shunted back W through FL. If she moves more quickly, this turn will likely happen further N.