Jeanne forecast #2..Will re-emerge in ATLANTIC lol

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1015 AM THURS SEPT 16TH 2004

Jeanne became a hurricane with 80 mph winds this morning during the 8am advisory. But as we speak her eye is currently over the DR/Hispanola basin. The region is mountanous which will cause Jeanne to stay a Cat 1 or even weaken a tad before re-emerging.

Despite her current W movement.. Models indicate a NW or WNW movement will resume in the near future. This will cause Jeanne to pull away from the DR and possibly strengthen some when her core is back over water.

Jeanne is currently headed towards the US and where she goes will depend on several factors. Ivan, the Bermuda High, and an approaching trough. Ivan is forecast to slow down and possibly even stall over the Appalachians. If he does so.. that may allow the high to build in further to the west. Jeanne will be riding the high most likely to where she wants to go. She could even go around the high if the high does not extend further West, thus causing her to potentially spare Florida and head northward.

Jeanne could also head north if an apparent approaching trough gets here in time to once again save Florida. Or Jeanne could ride a path similar to Frances. Currently, I believe the trough is not going to be that strong or perhaps not even make it. This would keep Jeanne on a W by NW course toward Florida.

Jeanne will attempt to re-intensify once she's back over the warm waters. Waters that are easily in the 80's. There could also be some form of deepening, if she can begin to get a better grip on herself and become a more organized hurricane.

My current forecast is calling for Jeanne to ride the ridge and for the high to expand. This would cause Jeanne to get much closer to Florida if not too a Florida landfall.

Here is the current 5 day outlook regarding Jeanne. Remember locales and intensity errors can occur.

Today: Over DR/Hispanola Max Winds: 75 mph
Friday: In the Caribbean, pulling away from the Islands. Max winds: 80 mph
Saturday: Into the Central and South Bahamas: Max Winds: 90 mph
Sunday: Into the Northern Bahamas, possible Nassau pit stop. Max Winds: 95 mph
Monday: Threatening landfall in Florida, target not set yet. Max Winds: 100 mph

Jeanne's landfall could be even earlier if she decides to accelerate

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is the opinion of an amateur and is not be to used regarding making decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more reliable info. please check local media outlets or the NHC

[ay]

Is there a website for this? I know it says its not authoritative, but the way its posted makes it look semi-official.

Or is this just more 6 day out gloom and doom?

[Josephine96]

As always.. comments are welcomed..

[Josephine96]

Hey ay.. It's actually my own writing.. Believe it or not..

[PurdueWx80]

The Caribbean is south of the Islands...the way you have it, it doesn't sound like Jeanne ends up south of Hispaniola or Cuba. Ya may want to change the title.

[Josephine96]

lol I just did.. good point.. {slaps self for geography blunder}

[Guest]

What will be, if any, the interaction of Hurricane Jeanne with the remnants of Ivan? Thanks!

[Josephine96]

The Ivan factor as stated was that if Ivan slows down.. and even stalls.. the high could build West and allow Jeanne to move closer to Fla..

The only way I see Ivan and Jeanne interacting is if Ivan takes his sweet time leaving the mainland and Jeanne gets pulled north.. Then they'd interact at a more northern latitude..

[Guest]

Which means that Ivan could pull Jeanne north into the Carolinas?

[Josephine96]

I believe that sounds about right.. Don't quote me..

I understand that if Jeanne does go to the Carolina's she'll be brought there by either a trough or by riding around the high because it doesn't build far enough west..

[NFLnut]

As always.. comments are welcomed..

Why do you ALWAYS assume that EVERY Hurricane is headed straight for Orlando/Kissimmee/central Florida?!

[Guest]

Thanks for the info Josephine!

[Josephine96]

LOL do NOT

[Josephine96]

let me roll my eyes back at you

[HurricaneGirl]

[cape_escape]

Great forecast Josephine! Keep up the goos work!

[FloridaDiver]

Hey ay.. It's actually my own writing.. Believe it or not..

Excellent forecast!
Nice explanation of the different scenarios and synoptic weather patterns that will eventually have an effect on her track in the days to come.

[Josephine96]

Thank you Cape and Florida Diver.. I feel much more open to giving my opinion now that I finally have given it 1x

[guanaskip]

A little more left if FSU super has its act back together since its abysmal failure last Fri nite.

[Josephine96]

I saw 1 model this morning that had it making landfall in S fla.. going midway into the GOM and then making a u-e... and going up near the big bend