2am on Jeanne a little late??

[Dmetal81]

Anyone seen 2am on Jeanne yet, i see its a bit late, I assume shes a hurricane now.

[Lockhart]

It still isn't out. I guess they're working their rears off on Ivan.

[ericinmia]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 10a


Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 16, 2004



...Jeanne nearing hurricane intensity...located in the Mona Passage
between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic...

a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the eastern and northern
coasts of the Dominican Republic from La Plata southward to Isla
Saona.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
northern coast of the Dominican Republic from west of Puerto Plata
westward to Monte Cristo and along the southern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Isla Saona westward to Santo Domingo.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeastern Bahamas...
including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...
and the Ragged Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos
Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Jeanne.

At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was
located near latitude 18.6 north...longitude 67.8 west or about
35 miles... 55 km...east of Cabo engano Dominican Republic.

Jeanne is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. The forecast motion will bring the center of Jeanne near
the northern coast of the Dominican Republic later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Jeanne is strengthening and will likely be a hurricane later
this morning. A hurricane reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
the system in the next few hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
along the north coast of the Dominican Republic later this morning.
Winds and seas will begin subsiding along the coastline of Puerto
Rico during the day.

Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides. Several locations across Puerto Rico have already received
more than a foot of rain...including the islands of Culebra and
Vieques...with Naguabo in the eastern portion of the island having
received more than 20 inches of rainfall. Additional rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...are still possible
over Puerto Rico. Many rivers on Puerto Rico are already at or
above flood stage.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico.

Repeating the 2 am AST position...18.6 N...67.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am AST.

Forecaster Jarvinen

[Dmetal81]

I bet they are, its that critical landfall moment, so Im sure its quite busy down there. Ill forgive them, this time

[Dmetal81]

Thanks Eric

[Lockhart]

Thanks, Eric. The advisory still hasn't been issued on the NHC website, so I don't feel *quite* so bad about you posting it 30 seconds after I said it wasn't available.

[yankeelmbb]

Will it go over the DR or skirt the north....wondering if this will die over there or intensify from lack of interaction

[ericinmia]

lol, no problem.

The sad thing is... they get the advisory out to others, before they even post it themselves.
If you don't like scanning ftp lists for it... the next best place is http://www.wunderground.com they usually have it as soon as its released. They also update their tracking/forecast maps immediately.

Stay safe...
-Eric

[Dmetal81]

Will it go over the DR or skirt the north....wondering if this will die over there or intensify from lack of interaction

Its going to be very close to DR, maybe a combination of both, on and off as it trys to get a bit farther north... Straight west over DR would tear the system apart.
That'd be nice, I think I've had enough this year.

[caneseddy]

I think it is going to skirt the north coast of Hispaniola, although I'm not totally sure

[yankeelmbb]

Hey my brother has a house in Deltona...you guys got hit preety good with Charley!