Mobile Bay Nightmare Scenario May Be Averted

[dennis1x1]

houstoner.....you are hilarious following me around spouting nonsense......i was responding to the question posted directly above my post!!

the surge in mobile bay will be on the west shore.....and not from the vast source of the gulf....but from the bay itself....

[Anonymous]

LMAO.
Wasnt talking directly towards you, just stating in general. Ego check needed? Im simply stating that there will be some surge, I actually tried to agree with you!

[dennis1x1]

lol....no problem.....i took the post the wrong way....

[GuffMorlix]

Quit fighting, guys. How much surge we talking in the Bay if Ivan stays on its current track? Worst case scenario was around 18 feet. What are we looking at if the eastern eye wall goes ashore at Gulf Shores?

[Lockhart]

As I thought, it looks like Ivan is veering a bit again at the last minute, making the damage less awful. For having been a horrific storm, Ivan sure has been cutting people some breaks. Jamaica could have been leveled. New Orleans could have been destroyed. Mobile as well. Now, it looks to be coming in at a far less populated area. Small mercies. Let's hope it falls apart faster than expected, as well.

[Sanibel]

Just the opposite. At present track he'll blow the water out of the bay with a strong west eyewall wind from the north...

[dennis1x1]

yep...especially with that last east bobble...

[Lockhart]

Are you saying that blowing the water out of the bay from the North will strengthen Ivan (or keep him from weakening quickly)?

[bahamaswx]

No... blowing the water out of the bay will result in little/no storm surge, thus considerably less damage.

[baygirl_1]

Ummmm... that less populated area is Baldwin County, AL. It's really not that unpopulated. It's been swapping places the last couple of years with Shelby County, AL (outside Birmingham) as the fastest growing county in the state. In addition to having a growing population, most of the crops grown in South Alabama are grown there.
So, you might want to hold off on damage estimates, yet.

Plus, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Perdido Key, Ono Island... lots of high value real estate are now in that eyewall.

[Lockhart]

Ah, so Sanibel's "just the opposite" was directed at the person above me who said "worst case scenario was..." instead of at me. Thank you.

[donsutherland1]

Just a quick note:

Hurricane Ivan came ashore near Gulf Shores, AL as a Category 3 hurricane with 130 mph maximum sustained winds.

As far as the track was concerned:

Ivan's track from Monday night:

22.5N 85.7W Actual: 22.5N 85.8W Difference: 6 miles
25.0N 87.1W Actual: 25.0N 87.1W Difference: None
27.5N 87.7W Actual: 27.5N 88.1W Difference: 25 miles
30.0N 88.0W Actual: 30.0N 87.8W Difference: 12 miles
31.5N 87.9W Actual: 31.5N 87.7W Difference: 12 miles

Refined track from last night:
30.0N 87.9W Actual: 30.0N 87.8W Difference: 6 miles
31.5N 87.6W Actual: 31.5N 87.7W Difference: 6 miles

Now, as Hurricane Ivan continues to head inland, he will weaken and likely come to a crawl or even stall. Thus parts of the Southeast that faced torrential rains from Frances are in line for more staggering rainfall amounts. Substantial flooding could occur there.

Meanwhile Jeanne has now become the latest hurricane.

[donsutherland1]

An issue arose at WWBB as to why Frederic caused more damage at Mobile than Ivan did. The slightly differing tracks between Frederic (1979) and Ivan illustrate the vast difference both landfall point and trajectory can have.

Frederic moved along and just west of Mobile Bay. Ivan arrived near Mobile Bay and tracked just east of it.

Frederic was heading NNW (340°) through the Mobile Bay area. This was bringing more and more surge into the Bay. Ivan was heading N (8°) in this same vicinity just to its east and the amount of surge possible was steadily decreasing. Hence, given its somewhat later commencement of recurvature relative to Ivan, Frederic brought a big tidal surge into the Bay and Ivan did not. Had Frederic passed a little farther to the west at 30.0N, then the amount of surge into the Bay would have been even worse.

Frederic's Track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Ivan's Track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Janie34]

Don.....good show.

I left Mobile yesterday at around 4 a.m. I'm up in Memphis with my sister, well out of harms way. Last night I tracked the movement of Ivan and came to the same conclusion as you. Believe me, I knew very well what a difference that track would make. Unfortunately for Baldwin county and extreme NW Florida.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Janie.

I feel very badly for those on the east side of Ivan. It appears that Baldwin County and the western Panhandle were punished quite severely. I am happy that the storm avoided the worst track for Mobile Bay and was weakening upon landfall.