2nd half of Ivan to be worse than the first

[Ziplock48]

I just heard that there is a temperature inversion involved. There is a layer of warm air about a thousand feet deep over the land which is keeping the highest wild aloft. When the back side of Ivan comes ashore, the winds will be coming not out of the N and NE (from over the land), but will be moist and dense from the Gulf, and the temperature inversion will be cleared away, and the winds will scape the ground.

This would also help to explain the radical shear and resulting powerful tornados. Apparently, these tornados are above your typical F1's from landfalling hurricanes.

If this temp inversion theory is correct, then things will be much worse in the early hours of the morning.

Special note to Dennis1x1: you have been incredibly bearish on intensity on this hurricane. I can't imagine why you have adopted this stance. I just want to say that we all have much to learn about these systems. Perhaps you had not considered the inversion effect in your posts about the windfield being overrated. It has not even made landfall yet.

Good luck to all in harms way. My thoughts and prayers are with you all.
Zip

[Psychonaut777]

Wow that's really interesting. Looks like it could definately be true..

[dennis1x1]

interesting theory.......as for being "bearish"...just discussing the current observations and my surprise at them and trying to come up with a reason....so far 2 have been addressed.

1. front moving in faster...cutting down new orleans winds.
2. this inversion theory..
3. my wondering if for whatever reason the wind threat has become tight and localized for some reason.

very interesting.....

[Ziplock48]

There is little doubt that the extreme winds will be near and to the East side of Ivan's rather large eye. There's your tight windfield.

Latest radar obs look like a band of convection is wrapping very tightly, cutting the diameter od the eye nearly by half. I wonder if this will accelerate the winds? Time is running out for Ivan, thank goodness.

Zip

[isobar]

Where did you hear about the temp inversion, Zip? Very interesting.

[Tri-State_1925]

I never knew there was a wide area of strong hurricane force winds to begin with. Not surprising that the winds have been more localized than hyped. That's good.

Btw, New Orleans looked very calm on TV a few minutes ago.

[Ziplock48]

I heard it on Jacksonville local news WJXT. I should have credited the source. Sorry. My mistake. I just got a little bit excited.
Zip
Can't remember the met's name. He's a kind of cleaned up surfer dude.

[isobar]

Thanks Zip. I was hoping to locate some info online. I'll post links if I find anything.

[RunsInTheRain]

I heard it on Jacksonville local news WJXT. I should have credited the source. Sorry. My mistake. I just got a little bit excited.
Zip
Can't remember the met's name. He's a kind of cleaned up surfer dude.

Was it Tim Deagon? He is enthuisastic, knowledgable and thoughtful when it comes to weather systems.

I was watching another Jacksonville channel earlier, the met(?) pointed to a radar image, suggesing Ivan was losing it structure in the SW quad. A few minutes later, pointing to the image, Tim Degan commented, while talking on another topic, that the SW quadrant was simply out of the radar's range. Like journalism in other fields, one can say something in an effort to "sound" knowledgable; or one can really have a passion for the subject, and therefore know it.

[Ziplock48]

Yes, it was indeed Tim. He was excellent with Francis. I agree with you...he has a great enthusiasm and supports it with a keen understanding.
Thanks for remembering his name and posting it.
ZiP