Historical Landfall

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:22 pm

This looks very much like it will become the largest storm surge...in terms of scope and coverage...that we have seen in 30 years or so.

Also...the inland flooding could become monumental and create a very dangerous situation for many people well inland.

This storm name will be retired. It will be studied...and it will be a historial landfall. I hope everyone is prepared.

This system brings everything that is bad about weather...surge...inland flooding...tornados.

MW

ps...for anyone interested...I have posted a link to the forecast I made on Monday...got lucky with the forecast but...unfortunately...unlucky for the folks along the path.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44687

MW

dennis1x1 · #2 Postby **dennis1x1** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:24 pm

has the windfield tightened to incredibly localized? man the increase from 25 kts at 10pm to xxx in just a couple hours is going to be incredible......im just really surprised at local observations in mobile, pensacola, etc right now.......

#3 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:31 pm

Looks like the core of the strongest winds are coming in now...we will likely see those obvs start to pick up.

My biggest concern is all of the serious costal surge and flooding we are going to see. I hope folks did not decide to ride this one out close tot he coast.

MW

rockyman · #4 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:33 pm

Mike...Winds at my house on Dauphin Island is experiencing NE winds...and it looks like we'll be in the NW quadrant....am I REALLY that much better off, or is my house still a goner? (BTW...I'm safe 150 miles north of the coast)

Thanks!

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:35 pm

Ssome of the dry air entrainment noted probably came in association of the winds rotating off the landmass, and that same dry air may have just enhanced convection in the eastern eyewall ... the tornado threat is just unreal with Ivan ... already 45 tornado warnings have been issued in just a 9 hour timeframe today, and there's gonna be a hell of a lot more ...

Destructive winds that will likely span as far as 150 miles, continued tornado threat, and as Ivan is progged to stall, a serious ... possibly even in a lack of better terms, a BIBLICAL proportion type flooding threat in the Southern Appalachains which still is reeling from the torrential downpours and flooding from Frances just a week and a half ago ....

This is going to be a historical hit, hands down ... and a storm that will likely be talked about for generations ...

May God be with everyone in the path of Ivan tonight and in the coming days ...

SF

#6 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:36 pm

rockyman wrote:Mike...Winds at my house on Dauphin Island is experiencing NE winds...and it looks like we'll be in the NW quadrant....am I REALLY that much better off, or is my house still a goner? (BTW...I'm safe 150 miles north of the coast)

Thanks!

Good to hear you are inland...stay safe.

The concern will still be wave action near and over the island. How far away from the coast is your home and on which part of the island (n/s/e/w)?

MW

rockyman · #7 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:38 pm

House is located on the "West End"--the totally barren part with no trees...my house is 5th back from the Gulf...probably 500 feet. Any feedback from anyone would be awesome right now.

#8 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:40 pm

rockyman wrote:House is located on the "West End"--the totally barren part with no trees...my house is 5th back from the Gulf...probably 500 feet. Any feedback from anyone would be awesome right now.

That's in the best possible place for you...with the eye passing to the east there will be some wind and wave action from the north...but I don't think it will be enough to go 500 feet inland. But it will be close.

MW

Historical Landfall

Historical Landfall

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