evening jeanne forecast... toward florida

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

forecast is by john cangialosi

[tronbunny]

not directed at Mr Orrt or Cangilosi, but at Jeanne and her predicted path.

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[rainstorm]

sounds about right

[FLAgirl]

As a resident of S. FLA, I am beginning to lose faith in any forecast beyond 3 days. We've had too many "it's coming to S. FLA" forecasts that do nothing but cause panic and anxiety (I had chest pains last Thursday at the prospects of Ivan hitting here). I know this site is geered towards predicting the long range forecasts, but is there anyone else out there that feels the way I do? I have lost total confidence in the computer models beyond 3 days. That means all of them!

[Scorpion]

Same here. I do not believe this thing is hitting us. Last week they had Ivan pointed right at us, and I was scared and getting ready. Now the most we got from him were high clouds.

[cape_escape]

Derek is really good thou, and I can't help but to takenotice whe nhe says something! Thanks for the forecast Derek! I'll be checking regularly to see what you think in the near future!

[tronbunny]

Well, since this thread was started by Derek Orrt, i feel I should chime in about models and Derek Orrt.

Derek called Ivan's landfall a whole lot closer than any model did, more than 5 days out.
That said, The published models have been garbage beyond 3 days so far. The published models in general don't thrill me.
There has got to be something said for those that do it the old-fashioned way, "by hand" alongside the models.
The A98e is a constant reminder that a human has to check and verify everything within the model.

[caneseddy]

I also remember when the models had Ivan coming into South Florida and many posters here were panicking and one reply that I remember from Derek was that he said that he wasn't planning to put up shutters and that was almost 5 days before Ivan was known to go

Also, one of the local meteorologist, who is on one of the Spanish stations here and who nailed Ivan going into the GOM and not impacting us even before the NHC was sure said that he doesn't think Jeanne will curve north as the NHC says but rather west towards Flolrida

[FLAgirl]

I didn't mean any disrespect to Derek, as he is just interpeting what he sees in the computer models. It's the computer models that I have a problem with. They change too much to be credible in my opinion.

I'll stick to watching the 3 day forecast. I'll have plenty of time to prepare in that timeframe. Anytime beyond 3 days, I won't believe anyone who says that it's coming to S. FLA, nor will I believe anyone who says it's not.

I'm tired of the unnecessary panic caused by faulty computer models.

Am I alone with this opinion?

[miamijaaz]

I'm with you Flagirl. The entire Keys were evacuated based on Ivan's 5-day forecast and we know how that turned out. I'm concerned that the lack of accuracy in the 5-day forecast is costing the state millions of dollars and crippling tourism. I'm not suggesting we don't take storms seriously, just recognize the limitations of any forecast beyond 5 days and react more cautiously to it.

[Derek Ortt]

and I'm not the forecaster responsible, but cangialosi may even be better than myself. I'll sur ebe watching this closely during the next couple of days and will likely have to make some prelim preps

[FLAgirl]

Amen Miamijaaz! Not only was that early evacuation a needless ecomomic disaster, but a pychological one as well. People in the Keys probably won't take evacuations seriously next time, which may lead to worse tragedies.

[cape_escape]

I also remember when the models had Ivan coming into South Florida and many posters here were panicking and one reply that I remember from Derek was that he said that he wasn't planning to put up shutters and that was almost 5 days before Ivan was known to go

Also, one of the local meteorologist, who is on one of the Spanish stations here and who nailed Ivan going into the GOM and not impacting us even before the NHC was sure said that he doesn't think Jeanne will curve north as the NHC says but rather west towards Flolrida

I also vividly remeber that comment from Derek! It stuck in my mind, and he never strayed from what he felt or thought regarding Ivan, no matter how much some may have tried!

[tronbunny]

and I'm not the forecaster responsible, but cangialosi may even be better than myself. I'll sur ebe watching this closely during the next couple of days and will likely have to make some prelim preps

And humble too!

You guys at the nwhhc have some powerful tools, two of which are Mr. Orrt's and Mr. Cangialosi's brains.

[miamijaaz]

[/quote]I also vividly remeber that comment from Derek! It stuck in my mind, and he never strayed from what he felt or thought regarding Ivan, no matter how much some may have tried![/quote]

Yep. Which is why it makes me nervous when he says he's considering preliminary preparations for Jeanne...

[wabbitoid]

I remember a thread questioning whether the 5-day should even be published. I thought about it, and I'm starting to think that it shouldn't be. Look at how the press latched onto "Florida Again!" and really ignored some of the other possibilities.

The only problem is that some places need a full 3 days to evacuate, like the Keys and New Orleans. Yes, as FLAgirl said you can't cry wolf, but what to do?

Perhaps define a "Hurricane Alert" zone where they ask people to pay close attention as the 3-day might come into their region in the next 48 hours? I think it would be nice to have a more non-descript thing like that which gets people to pay attention, but not to get panicky and make more of it than they should.

[MyrtleB656]

I just would like to thank Derek for going out there and making a statement, right or wrong. Unfortunately, Floridians can't really count on our local forcasters as they tend to be on the cautious side (in a bad way). Many times, information I have given to my family and friends from this site, and Derek, has come out days later on the local news.

So once again, Thanks to Derek! Cheers!

[gkrangers]

Ok fine, how about NOAA blacks out the sattellites to the public and only the guys at the NHC get to watch until 10 minutes before landfall..then they make there information avalaible.

Forecasting hurricanes is insanely difficult and you all know that. I understand why you are upset but please, you are truly better safe than sorry.

If you don't believe in the long range forecasts, THEN DONT TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY...they often do change a great deal and can be very wrong, and sometimes are.

Now...early evacuations are another thing...the Key West evacuation was way premature in my not so expert opinion...but the track was what it was with the data available. Nobody could know for sure and the forecasters can only make do with what they have. And I'm not so sure bringing Miss Cleo onboard will help things.

Flame me if you want...just the way I feel. Its a tough job, someone has to do it, and nobody is forcing you to listen and watch.

[gkrangers]

I dont mean to sound callous, but it just bugs me when people get on forecasters for being "wrong".

[guanaskip]

3 day seems more accurate.
5 day is for the birds and politicians.
just think how WRONG your local 5 day forecast is