Good news for Mobile

calidoug · #1 Postby **calidoug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:42 pm

Eye integrity is being compromised, and the eye has been moving east of due N, which should put Mobile Bay in the western eyewall, which blows *offshore*, limiting any surge.

Psychonaut777 · #2 Postby **Psychonaut777** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:44 pm

Doesn't really look like that to me... still lots of time here.

calidoug · #3 Postby **calidoug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:46 pm

It doesn't? What are you looking at?

Both satellite and radar loops are showing E of N movement.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kmob.shtml

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

addictedfisher18 · #4 Postby **addictedfisher18** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:46 pm

were still not seing hurricane force winds here in mobile, some gusts may be close, are we gonna get any or not, im confused, hurr. force winds extend up to 150 miles and the center is 105 miles south of al

heel · #5 Postby **heel** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:46 pm

Dr. Lyons just said that the storm was going to move NNE, away from Mobile.

#6 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:47 pm

In my opinion, that remains to be seen. I hope you are correct but even the Mobile radio and TV stations haven't hinted at that yet. The eye became quite interesting in the last few minutes as it opened up to include an area to the SW making the eye very large. I have no idea what this phenomena is called but it is awesome to watch:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html

PS. I didn't see Steve Lyons and the above were posted as I was writing this.

dennis1x1 · #7 Postby **dennis1x1** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:47 pm

agree.....they will definitely miss the eastern eyewall......and it appears pensacola is likely to get the worst of it.....

calidoug · #8 Postby **calidoug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:48 pm

addicted, the key words being "up to".

It depends what direction you go from the center.

In Mobile, you will probably see hurricane force winds, but if the NNE track holds, they may be more like 85 mph sustained, instead of 120 mph.

Psychonaut777 · #9 Postby **Psychonaut777** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:48 pm

This thing has not been behaiving as expected at all. With hours yet till landfall I'm going to wait and see. The predictions have been consistently wrong with this thing getting stronger in the face of what should make it weaker.. we'll have to wait.

calidoug · #10 Postby **calidoug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:49 pm

This phenomenon is called "the eye losing integrity as the storm pulls in dry air, losing its warm water energy source as it moves over land"

dennis1x1 · #11 Postby **dennis1x1** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:49 pm

it is plainly evident that the size of thewindfield has been overestimated a great deal ....at least in the north and west......just based on weather station reports...

too early to tell about the east side or what happens right around the core......however recon has not found anything that would justify a 135mph advisory all afternoon......

calidoug · #12 Postby **calidoug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:50 pm

Sure it has. It's just begun to recurve NNE a little sooner than the models predicted. It's not terribly unusual.

Looks to me like Pensacola is going to get the worst of it.

Sanibel · #13 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:51 pm

I think I have it now. It is in a wobbling slight hook and should go over Pensacloa now...

wxwatcher2 · #14 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:53 pm

Don't believe dr lyons,
Bastardi on MSNBC says MObile Bay....
and it looks like the North track has returned.
Ivan sidestepped the SE part of LA. coastline.

Hunker down Mobile. its coming.

gulfcoaster53 · #15 Postby **gulfcoaster53** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:55 pm

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

rockyman · #16 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:56 pm

Ivan is NOT moving NNE...it's moving SLIGHTLY east of due north...it's moving at 10 degrees...NNE is 22.5 degrees...and TWC NEVER said that the system is "moving away" from Mobile...AND it's VERY dangerous to tell someone in "Mobile" that they are only going to get 85 mph wind...What part of Mobile does this person live? Please listen to the official advisories and not to the folks on this thread who have an obvious agenda.

#17 Postby **MGC** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:57 pm

The wind field of Ivan has not been over estimated. The wind field is valid over open water, not land. Land greatly reduces the force and extent of the wind field.....MGC

dennis1x1 · #18 Postby **dennis1x1** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:59 pm

i suppose the new orleans forecasters didnt know about land friction when they forecasted 80mph sustained?

new orleans hasnt gusted over 50mph and they are at their closest point to the eye...the windfield (at least to the west) has been overestimated..period.

Scorpion · #19 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:59 pm

Umm dennis this was easily over 140 mph this afternoon. It just lost some of its intensity as it neared land. It is still very dangerous, 135 is not anything to laugh at. Those 122 kt were taken in the SE quad, probably a weaker part of the storm. What did they get for the NE quad?

calidoug · #20 Postby **calidoug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:01 pm

Bastardi is going to BUST again, and the NHC just confirmed the E trend.

Their 10pm CDT track shows mobile bay getting the W side of the storm, not the E, and I expect the actual track will be still further E.

Radar loop shows continued NNE movement.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kmob.shtml

Good news for Mobile

Good news for Mobile

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