9 PM - NHC - Still 135 / 931

[al79philly]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[Scorpion]

I guess thats because of the recon report. Wait until they get into the NE quad.

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

You beat me to it!

[Sanibel]

I'm sorry but major hurricanes do not take perfect form, red donut core, drop 9 millibars, and not increase windspeed.

Something's not right here...

[Scorpion]

Yes something is definitely wrong, especially considering the fact that it looked like complete rags this morning and now takes on a shape it had entering the GOM. A wind increase is already taking place, but I doubt it will be much. Maybe 140-145. 150 is the highest I would go.

[yoda]

Forseen an increase in winds at 11 PM advisory I have. Winds will be at 140 mph, yes yes.

[Cape Verde]

I'm sorry but major hurricanes do not take perfect form, red donut core, drop 9 millibars, and not increase windspeed.

Something's not right here...

<P>Yes, it would be nice to have accurate information, but I don't think it matters in a practical sense. Nobody is going to nail extra plywood up based on new information tonight. <P>I hope people planned for a major hurricane and decided whether to evacuate or not on the same information.

[calidoug]

The pressure dropped BUT the eye diameter grew a lot earlier today. That prevents the winds from being as high as you would otherwise expect with that pressure.

Should the eye contract, and the pressure stay that low, you'd find higher winds.

[clueless newbie]

Hm, I suspect the explanation is rather straightforward.

In the morning, the structure was bad and pressures high, but the speeds were rather high because of inertia. After that the winds fell but the structure started to improve and pressures fell, so the NHC posted higher winds then were supported by the recon - because they saw that soon the winds might get high again. Now the winds notched a bit, to match the NHC posted speeds. The pressure is not falling anymore and actually Ivan seems to be weakening again. The winds are still probably rather high (135-140mph, NOT 150+), because of inertia and because Ivan does not look THAT bad yet. We can expect SLOW weakening now.

[cccmachine]

Still 100+ miles off shore.Damn you Ivan

[dennis1x1]

yep...still never a report by recon that ivan has ever grown into the 135mph official advisory.......recon has consistently been 125-130...