18z GFS stalls in bahamas then west to S FL

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Vortex
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18z GFS stalls in bahamas then west to S FL

#1 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:52 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174l.gif
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#2 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:53 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
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#3 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:59 pm

Don't believe the GFS model here. There is no reason why Jeanne should stall anywhere, so throw it away.
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#4 Postby calidoug » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:05 pm

yoda, perhaps you're forgetting Frances? And the Bahamas stall CORRECTLY forecast by the GFS 3-4 days out?
Last edited by calidoug on Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby Anonymous » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:06 pm

Looks like GFS may be right for a change with the blocking high to the north causing it to stall followed by west movement... Fla folks gotta pay close attention to this one as well :eek:
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:06 pm

Model truncation loses resolution in that timeframe ... sorry, I simply can't trust something that I can't throw ...

SF
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#7 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:11 pm

calidoug wrote:yoda, perhaps you're forgetting Frances? And the Bahamas stall CORRECTLY forecast by the GFS 3-4 days out?


I know. But, 12z GFS shows a similar scenario. Except it stalls Jeanne out north of the Bahamas before, edging it west, but then still has it out there past 10 days, before another trough takes it out to sea.
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#8 Postby calidoug » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:12 pm

Stormsfury, that was the exact objection when the Frances stall showed up in the GFS...
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#9 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:13 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Model truncation loses resolution in that timeframe ... sorry, I simply can't trust something that I can't throw ...

SF


I am guessing that means you are throwing you the GFS as well?
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:21 pm

Overall, the GFS DOES have the right idea with synoptic scale pattern with a very large ridge developing in the East, trough west, so I DO like that depiction ... details, well, not etched in stone ...

SF
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#11 Postby Kennethb » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:27 pm

I saw that JB's intial thoughts for Jeanne were a TX, LA threat.
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#12 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:27 pm

:eek:
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#13 Postby CocoaBill » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:39 pm

I'll be watching the one on this model that's between Cape Verde and the Lesser Antilles........ looks like a train setting up. All Aboard!
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#14 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:46 pm

Could happen, but the GFS has been overall horrible with the last few storms.
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