Question for Prof Mets on Compute models and climate

[EDR1222]

I may be way off base here, but thought I would pose this question?Although the NHC has done well on short range model forecasts, is it possible that the models are tending to recurve and pick up on weaker ridges based on the fact that during the development of these models, we were in an era of lower activity in the atlantic and also a time when it was predicatable to watch the hurricanes make the "north turn" toward the carolinas or out to sea far more often than long term climatology tells us is normal? Also, during the past several years persitant troughs have caused early recurve on may occasions. The fact is during the busy time of the 20's thru the mid 60's, Carolina hits did exist, but were much less frequent than Florida or Texas hits. This leads me to believe that stronger high pressure ridges in the late summer were the rule more than the exception. Florida was the biggest U.S. target by far especially Southeast Florida and Northwest Florida as well, as we look back at long term history. I am not trying to discredit the models at all and I know they abosord date from air force recon missions as well and because I know the are trying to improve them all the time, but I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on this?