7:00 NHC Advisory - 931 mb, 135 mph

[al79philly]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[Guest]

seems at least 145 on satellite...

[al79philly]

Scary thing is - this has dropped 9 mb in the past few hours... 9 more mb would put it at 922 - exactly what andrew was. Hopefully it is done strengthening

[Innotech]

Cat 4 imminent

[calidoug]

135mph *is* Cat 4

Cloud tops have warmed a bit in the past few hours, and being this close to land, and slightly cooler water, I'd say the strengthening is just about done.

[logybogy]

oh give it up calidough, you were the same person that said Ivan was "dying" last night and would be a category 1 or 2 at land fall.

[gkrangers]

Yep, I think it holds at 135MPH.

It maybe 140-145 but it seems like its just going to hold steady and make landfall around 135MPH.

Remember...the NHC said there would be no NET change in wind speed.

Its likely that the winds did increase to perhaps 145MPH at a time during the last few hours when the deepening occured and the convection blossomed and cooled...but now it looks like Ivan has levelled off and will hold its current composure.

[frankthetank]

Still has some time until landfall....this doesn't look good...

[Pebbles]

Don't forget it takes a couple of hours for windspeed to 'catch up' to pressure. Pressure is still dropping..wouldn't be surprised to see higher wind speeds at the next advisory.

[B-Bear]

Yes, and it'll be interesting to see if those cloud tops cool again after the sun is no longer warming them.

[logybogy]

And likewise, it takes time for a storm to "wind down" when pressures rise and it weakens.

So the timing may be that Ivan will weaken as he approaches land slightly, but the winds won't have the time to level off until after landfall.

[Sanibel]

I'm having trouble seeing no wind change with such a drastic form change and 9 millibar pressure drop...

[EarthStormFire]

I dont expect any strenghtening before landfall, infact weakening is likly. I now think it will hit land as a cat 3.

[drezee]

I HATE THE NHC! They are trying to verify their numbers! IVAN is getting much stronger!! They need to tell people!!! That is my family down there!!!

[Brent]

Complete devastation likely along the coast.

[gkrangers]

I HATE THE NHC! They are trying to verify their numbers! IVAN is getting much stronger!! They need to tell people!!! That is my family down there!!!

Telling them the winds are 145 instead of 135 is going to do what exactly?

[JayPSU]

I HATE THE NHC! They are trying to verify their numbers! IVAN is getting much stronger!! They need to tell people!!! That is my family down there!!!

BS! They are waiting for recon reports to raise or lower windspeeds. Simple as that! This conspiracy crap is getting old.

[HurricaneQueen]

Drezee:

I hope your family is safe. At this point it is too late to do much and whether the NHC says it is stronger or not, the damage will be catastrophic. In something this large, I can't imagine that 10 mph one way or the other will make that much difference. There are too many other variables.

I can only imagine what you are going through-the worry must be overwhelming. Please let us know how your family is doing.

Lynn

[birdwomn]

I HATE THE NHC! They are trying to verify their numbers! IVAN is getting much stronger!! They need to tell people!!! That is my family down there!!!

I understand your frustration. I too am frustrated because I was anticipating a strengthening of Ivan, but could not convince my family to evacuate. Now, we just have to wait and try not to worry too much. We have no control, it is a higher power.

[dennis1x1]

nhc has no interest in sandbagging and does the exact opposite of that....no recon reports suggest anything higher than 135 and in fact only supports 125-130...so per usual the nhc is advising on the high side..which is the responsible thing to do......this paranoia is uncalled for......its not the nhc's job to declare every hurricane a cat 5 so that your family will get out of there.


cloudtops are warming now also...so "imminent" rapid strengthening that would suggest the advisory wont be accurate in 3 hours is not the case either.