Why The Weakened Atlantic Ridge With Ivan's Remnants?

tropicstorm · #1 Postby **tropicstorm** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:47 pm

I'm listening to the mets & looking at the preliminary forecast models on Jeanne probably turning more NW & curving to miss Florida. Something I'm a little confused about - it seems the models curving Jeanne to the NW & maybe north is because Ivan's remnants will weaken the Atlantic ridge enough to turn the storm. Please explain why a developing or fully developed hurricane will be steered around the periphery of the Atlantic ridge because this high pressure system is impenetrable but when the remnants of Ivan begin moving NE after landfall, the ridge will be weakened and allow Jeanne to move NW or north. I don't understand - please enlighten me. A powerful hurricane can't move this ridge but a weakening tropical storm can? There is much I need to learn.

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:52 pm

I don't know either, but I will bump up your question.

#3 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:54 pm

Yeah - doesn't make much sense to me either....

#4 Postby **Cookiely** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:55 pm

I'll bump it because I don't understand this explanation either.

#5 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:57 pm

Dr. Lyons said this could be an outer banks hurricane?? The cone has shifted a little away from florida??

yoda · #6 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:59 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:Dr. Lyons said this could be an outer banks hurricane?? The cone has shifted a little away from florida??

yeah, the NHC forecast track makes it look like Jeanne could be a Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic threat...

Did Dr. Lyons just say that at the 5:50 Tropics Update CHV?

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:00 pm

the remnants of ivan would be a low-pressure area, not allowing the ridge to build all the way to the coastline, forcing the storm over case de ortt

yoda · #8 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the remnants of ivan would be a low-pressure area, not allowing the ridge to build all the way to the coastline, forcing the storm over case de ortt

What's case de Ortt?

jpigott · #9 Postby **jpigott** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:04 pm

from my limited understanding, i think the further west Ivan ends up the further west the ridge will build. I think i saw where either DT or wxrisk said that if Ivan stays west of the appalachains, the atlantic ridge will stay strong thus keeping Jeanne more westerly and then watch out FL

#10 Postby **Canelaw99** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:07 pm

I get that part of it - I just don't understand, as the original poster put it - why the hurricane, which is a low pressure system, is guided/steered by high pressure usually...but, when it's remnants, and still low pressure, it can exert enough force on a high to erode it or cause it to not build in a certain area....????? I so confoosed!

#11 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:08 pm

yoda wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:Dr. Lyons said this could be an outer banks hurricane?? The cone has shifted a little away from florida??

yeah, the NHC forecast track makes it look like Jeanne could be a Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic threat...

Did Dr. Lyons just say that at the 5:50 Tropics Update CHV?

yep sure did! :wink:

yoda · #12 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:09 pm

but the NHC says (FOR NOW) the Carolinas... hmm oh well. I will watch Jeanne closely.

tideline · #13 Postby **tideline** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:49 pm

i posted a question earlier about this same topic. a hurricane is a surface low pressure but a upper level high pressure. has ivan weakens the high pressure ridge over him will weaken, has jeanne strenghtens the pressure in the upper levels over her will rise. hurricanes have to go toward lower pressure in the upper atmosphere,just like water has to go down hill. i think this is correct.

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:54 pm

18Z GFS now makes this a FL (Miami specifically) storm in 174 hours...way the hell out in time but still.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_174m.gif

rainstorm · #15 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:59 pm

jeanne cant hit the carolinas if the tpc position of ivan is accurate in 5 days. the outflow from ivan, which will be huge, will rip jeanne to pieces. even though ivan will be just a low, its shear will spread out well to the east

tideline · #16 Postby **tideline** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:02 pm

ivan won't have a outflow in 5 days.

rainstorm · #17 Postby **rainstorm** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:11 pm

yes it wiil, and a huge outflow. gaston, a remnant low destroyed hermine. ivan is a powerful cane, and its outflow will be huge in 5 days. there is no way jeanne hits the carolinas with ivan sitting in east tennessee

yoda · #18 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:17 pm

rainstorm wrote:yes it wiil, and a huge outflow. gaston, a remnant low destroyed hermine. ivan is a powerful cane, and its outflow will be huge in 5 days. there is no way jeanne hits the carolinas with ivan sitting in east tennessee

Ivan wil be Dissapated!! Please explain how a DISAPPATED system has outflow.

Purdue, the GFS is BULL. It shows Ivan STALLING for like 6 days. GFS = DELETED model!

Why The Weakened Atlantic Ridge With Ivan's Remnants?

Why The Weakened Atlantic Ridge With Ivan's Remnants?

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