AccuWeather vs. NHC/TPC - Who is right?

[HURAKAN]

Same tropical system, completely different forecast track.

[yoda]

I'd ALWAYS go with NHC.

[Skywatch_NC]

NHC for me...

Eric

[Guest]

I saw that too. why are they so difference? that can confuse some people .I don't know what to think of this! I have friends in KY that wanted to come down to Myrtle bch next weekand wanted me to call them tonight and let them know what the weather will be like next week i don't know what to tell them. rain alot of rain. Don't come to SC/NC during the months of July thru Oct. No major hurricanes but alot of rain.

[Bane]

I always go with the NHC over Accuweather.

[Thunder44]

Accuweather's track goes on beyond 5 days, unlike the TPC track. So you can't fairly compare the too.

[rainstorm]

dt also says gom. i am going with accuweather. not only that, but the nhc has ivan and jeanne very close after 5 days, which would rip up jeanne.

[rainstorm]

also, twc has rain up and down the coast from ivan. its not possible for jeanne to survive the massive shear from ivan on the tpc track

[Steve]

Shoulda had Accu vs. Bastardi (their own) vs. NHC. NHC is good because they gradually adjust their tracks every 6 hours. Recall with Ivan how it went from a spinner to a AL/FL hit. If you adjust your track 4 times a day, your original idea will be lost. We know they place FAR too much reliance on the GFS model suite, and that in itself lessens their otherwise above-average credibility. But if Accuweather has a track from a few days out or Bastardi says something that doesn't verify, his mockers and bashers come out like rats.

Recall that Ivan was supposed to get to 60 west @ 14 north. 5 days later they had it almost to 72w @ 15n in the 36 hour window. Then on Friday, they had it at 30 & 83.5. That moved back and forth until whatever we end up with.

Having said all that, when it comes to life and limb, I trust the NHC. They'd do themselves a service though if they'd dump the GFS when it's plain as day based on the weather patterns and synoptic setup that the model (at that point) doesn't have a clue.

Steve

[drudd1]

NHC. Also, I am -removed- this thing away from Florida with all I've got. I am over this hurricane season. Two is enough, thank you!

[dougjp]

I go with DT, he makes too much sense on this. Therefore the closest to his is Accuweather. How do many of these models see a way this will be able to head NNW? I also think it will be blocked from doing that.

[LuckyStrike]

drudd1,
I used to think the people in the panhandle were not real Floridians either. They seemed more . . .I don't know, maybe akin to Cajun than the people I knew and lived with in the more southern parts of Florida. I don't want to offend anybody, of course.

[LuckyStrike]

I want to add also, that the Accuweather forecast suggests Florida more than the NHC track. The NHC track almost counts out Florida altogether from a direct strike at least. I don't think this is a Florida storm. I can see how some might so. Time will tell. I do remember Gaston and Hermes: How that little storm was picked-up and thrown northward by the larger and more powerful Gaston. If that high-pressure to the north weakens at all, and Ivan stalls, Jeanne will miss Florida. She might go way north.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Preparing per Accu track; PRAYING for NHC track.

[birdwomn]

Preparing per Accu track; PRAYING for NHC track.

I'm with you there! I'm thinking all my hair will be gray by the time this season is over at this rate!