LOL, read the 5PM discussion

[logybogy]

they are saying they expect no net change in intensity prior to landfall. I don't know how they can say that with a straight face.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html

[dennis1x1]

when they have it officially at 135mph and recon is measuring 125......i think they are probably covered considering the cooler waters.

[Innotech]

damage control?

Ivan will reintensify rapidly, just watch. He already is, and I expect a high end Cat 4 by next update, or soon theereafter. This type of storm doesnt do what Lili did. Its too intense at the core. It fights everything. Ivan is a hell of a storm.

[logybogy]

83 degree water is not cool. It's cooler than 86 degree water but it won't do much to weaken this storm.

[Cookiely]

I think they will take into consideration the people who are waiting for it to land. Why tell someone that it is increasing. It will just increase their fears and at this point, its too late to do anything if they are in an unsafe environment. Just my opinion.

[Tri-State_1925]

If it were mid-October, then I think the coastal waters would play more of a factor.

[dennis1x1]

damage control from what? boggle.

[dennis1x1]

hence i used the word cooler (as did the nhc)....and they are not "weakening" the storm.

[CaptinCrunch]

Face it, Ivan has BOMB just before landfall

[rdcrds]

they are covering themselfs with this 135 that just is not there.I have checked all the winds i can from different things and 125 is max.

I know 125 is a bad cane and prayers go out to everyone but i just don't see this cat 4 cane of a few days ago.

When it gets about 3 hrs closer 110 i still hold and firm as the max no matter what the heck nhc says.

[dennis1x1]

ivan has dropped 6mb in the last 6 hours while winds have dropped 10kts........bomb may be alittle strong a word until we have more data.

[Anonymous]

when they have it officially at 135mph and recon is measuring 125......i think they are probably covered considering the cooler waters.

JEEZ DENNIS.... 12 hrs, I was saying cat 4... you were saying cat 2.

[AL Chili Pepper]

If it were mid-October, then I think the coastal waters would play more of a factor.

Bingo! If this were October, we could hope for another Opal. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see this bump up to 145.

[PurdueWx80]

NO NET CHANGE = any type of strengthening and weakening combo that averages out to what Ivan is now.

[btsgmdad]

Dennis, I don't want the storm to be any worse than the next person. However your continued insistence that the storm is weakening beyond the truth disturbs me. People's lives are on the line. Someone could read your post and decide to ride the storm out when in reality they should have left. I think we should all be real and understand that hurricanes are an unpredictable force of nature not to be trifled with or underestimated.

[dennis1x1]

not one time in this post have i said that this storm is currently weakening....the discussion is "no net change" and I did not make that initial observation...the NHC did...

as for my other posts throughout the day i talked about ivan when he appeared to be weakening (pressure rose to 940), when he appeared to be strengthening (pressure fell to 933), and when he appeared to be maintaining.

thanks for the concern.