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(My forecast/prognostic discussion)
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the AL/FL Panhandle border, ground zero, with strong effects far reaching ...
also, current analysis with maps that will self-update as updates as they come available, and a 24 centered floater loop that runs in an inline frame ...
Ivan ... heading for Mobile, AL ...
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Stormsfury
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Ivan ... heading for Mobile, AL ...
Last edited by Stormsfury on Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Stormsfury
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Also: AFTER LANDFALL ... with the dramatic slowing, an incredible flooding situation could be unfolding ... with Ivan's progged to slow down or completely STALL out. Very heavy rains, and on the favored NE, and E side of the TC, shear parameters will likely be just as strong as what we saw in Frances which ended up producing a RECORD number of tornadoes in South Carolina confirmed ... so far with 34 confirmed tornadoes, and still awaiting the datasets from the Charleston WFO ....
Make no mistake about it, Ivan's destructiveness will NOT end after landfall, likely along the MS/AL coast, and points inland ... with AL, GA, and MAYBE the Western Carolinas with potentials for much as a FOOT of rain or MORE....
Some of the model guidance in the MR actually turn IVAN back to the SW late in the period and weakening further as a large Eastern ridge begins to develop, and then we introduce future problems with Jeanne ....
SF
Make no mistake about it, Ivan's destructiveness will NOT end after landfall, likely along the MS/AL coast, and points inland ... with AL, GA, and MAYBE the Western Carolinas with potentials for much as a FOOT of rain or MORE....
Some of the model guidance in the MR actually turn IVAN back to the SW late in the period and weakening further as a large Eastern ridge begins to develop, and then we introduce future problems with Jeanne ....
SF
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Stormsfury
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Ivan looming closer ... looks to make its final call at Mobile, AL ...
The warm eddy observed by satellite may NOT be as warm and as high in TCHP content as satellite originally estimated ... however, Ivan will likely made landfall as a borderline CAT 3/4 ... again, there isn't any notable shear present around Ivan, however, the only detriment is that some undercutting dry air intrusion might be entrained into the large circulation from around the western edge ...
The destructive effects won't end once Ivan gets inland ... Ivan looks to stall and sit around for a couple of days as steering currents completely collapse ...
Already HPC have put up some STARTLING rainfall predictions in the next 5 days. A very tight pressure gradient is also going to set up between a large hig pressure system in the NE nosing down into the Carolinas, and Ivan, which will generate some very gusty winds at times, even well after landfalll ... Also, we cannot forget the PROLONGED tornado threat and potential, and with a stall, will likely see tornado watches hoisted for the next 3-4 days, with some areas maybe staying in tornado watch boxes for as long as 72 hours ... on top of what fell during Frances in some of these locations, the end result could lead to catastrophic flooding ...
The warm eddy observed by satellite may NOT be as warm and as high in TCHP content as satellite originally estimated ... however, Ivan will likely made landfall as a borderline CAT 3/4 ... again, there isn't any notable shear present around Ivan, however, the only detriment is that some undercutting dry air intrusion might be entrained into the large circulation from around the western edge ...
The destructive effects won't end once Ivan gets inland ... Ivan looks to stall and sit around for a couple of days as steering currents completely collapse ...
Already HPC have put up some STARTLING rainfall predictions in the next 5 days. A very tight pressure gradient is also going to set up between a large hig pressure system in the NE nosing down into the Carolinas, and Ivan, which will generate some very gusty winds at times, even well after landfalll ... Also, we cannot forget the PROLONGED tornado threat and potential, and with a stall, will likely see tornado watches hoisted for the next 3-4 days, with some areas maybe staying in tornado watch boxes for as long as 72 hours ... on top of what fell during Frances in some of these locations, the end result could lead to catastrophic flooding ...
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donsutherland1
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