Jeanne and the East Coast

[Josephine96]

Glad my information was found helpful.. I actually like the 5 day forecasts btw.. It gives you a reason to speculate or at least to potentially plan for the storm 5 days in advance

[Skywatch_NC]

Glad my information was found helpful.. I actually like the 5 day forecasts btw.. It gives you a reason to speculate or at least to potentially plan for the storm 5 days in advance

I agree, John

Eric

[Josephine96]

Cool

[gtalum]

I liek the 5-day forecast because there i snothing more reassuring than having the 5-day point right at you. So far the forecasted 5-day point seems to be the safest location of all.

[BocaGirl]

[quote="Josephine96"]Central Fla has still never seen a landfall from a major {thank God Frances weakened}.. but this could be the 1 if she rapidly intensifies[/quote]

John, no disrespect intended, but you've got every storm headed right for Central Florida! And we all know that your area hasn't had the best year so far. Still. Chill man.........work on the power of positive thinking.......so far current tracks don't have Jeanne making landfall on your doorstep.

I'm still a rank amateur when it comes to weather predictions, but I'm predicting that Jeanne will NOT make landfall in Central Florida. I have a very close friend up there, so I monitor the CFL situation almost as closely as I monitor the weather here in the South.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[BocaGirl]

Central Fla has still never seen a landfall from a major {thank God Frances weakened}.. but this could be the 1 if she rapidly intensifies

John, no disrespect intended, but you've got every storm headed right for Central Florida! And we all know that your area hasn't had the best year so far. Still. Chill man.........work on the power of positive thinking.......so far current tracks don't have Jeanne making landfall on your doorstep.

I'm still a rank amateur when it comes to weather predictions, but I'm predicting that Jeanne will NOT make landfall in Central Florida. I have a very close friend up there, so I monitor the CFL situation almost as closely as I monitor the weather here in the South.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[Josephine96]

Double posts lol.. and excuse me but I had some reasons why I predicted Jeanne to come this way.. You seem to always been the 1 that tries to beat me down simply because I think each storm may come this way..

{not agitated.. sorry if it sounds that way} lol

[Josephine96]

by the way.. Just out of curiosity.. Are you in Boca Raton cause your name makes me think you are lol

[BocaGirl]

[quote="Josephine96"]by the way.. Just out of curiosity.. Are you in Boca Raton cause your name makes me think you are lol[/quote]

Yep! Boca Raton is where I am!

BocaGirl
Barbara

[Josephine96]

Cool beans.. Glad to hear that

[ay]

Glad someone else posted this. I can just say 'Ditto'. I've only been here 3 weeks, and have noticed the exact same thing.

I'm also an amateur and do appreciate all the great information I've gotten from the real pros.

>>>John, no disrespect intended, but you've got every storm headed right for Central Florida! And we all know that your area hasn't had the best year so far. Still. Chill man.........work on the power of positive thinking.......so far current tracks don't have Jeanne making landfall on your doorstep.

I'm still a rank amateur when it comes to weather predictions, but I'm predicting that Jeanne will NOT make landfall in Central Florida. I have a very close friend up there, so I monitor the CFL situation almost as closely as I monitor the weather here in the South.

BocaGirl
Barbara[/quote]

[Josephine96]

sorry if my gut feelings get in anyone's way or anyone's bad side..

[Skywatch_NC]

sorry if my gut feelings get in anyone's way or anyone's bad side..

It's okay, John ((((HUG))))

Eric

[Josephine96]

Thanks Eric.. I know you were 1 of many who liked my forecast earlier.. or at least the way I wrote it lol

[Skywatch_NC]

Thanks Eric.. I know you were 1 of many who liked my forecast earlier.. or at least the way I wrote it lol

There will always be a few out there, Bro who take "pleasure" at poking at someone's forecast even if they are just amateur.

You're quite welcome.

Eric

[ay]

No offense was intended. Just making an observation.

Again, I'm just a rank amateur and understand that long range forecasts are not dependable, but there does seem to be quite a bit of consensus sending this away from Florida.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

We'll keep watching regardless.

[Josephine96]

I actually think if that ridge builds in.. {which it could because Ivan may stall} then all those models will have to make a left shift..

[ericinmia]

LOL, For one to understand the NHC track one has to look at the previous runs. The NHC WILL NOT change their 5 day track drastically unless it effects someone in the immediate. In this case it doesn't... They do this to maintain consistancy, and round out guidance errors.
There is mounting evidence that this storm will not turn out to sea, or turn much nrothward at all for that matter. Wait and watch.... Slowly the NHC track will begin to shift to the west some.

Jeanne could still be torn apart by the mountains of hispanola, however, the models don't show that, but we can hope.
Everyone simply remain ready, watch vigilantly, and in due time we shall know. Generally the NHC is very good with hurricanes once they enter the bahamas, so if/once Jeanne enters the southern bahamas.... we shall know her fate.
-Eric


EDIT:
This was based off the model runs from last night, I have not, and will not have a chance to read he new ones yet.

The FSU, Candian, GFDL, and Euro are just a few of the models that are maintaing a strong atlantic ridge. To me, that is quiet the combination. That is one model (FSU) that is based off the strong points of many models... and the rest are two global models (Candian, Euro) and the GFDL which is based off of the GFS which is underplaying the ridge once again, but, the GFDL is compensating for that.

We never had that sort of consistancy with IVAN especially 5 days out. The globals were always seperated by at least a couple hundred miles.... something to think about.
-Eric

[Josephine96]

Hey Eric.. If you saw my forecast thread {which is now on Page 2} You'll note that the reason I think it'll be a potential Fla landfall is because the ridge may build back in instead of either weakening or being shifted eastward.. Check it out if you haven't already

[FloridaDiver]

Well, according to the new 11 AM track, FL may, MAY, be spared...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Although wxrisk forecast showed a major shift from right (East Coast of FL) to where it is now (and the NHC did the same…), his mention of the track for Jeanne as a result of the HPR over the Atlantic makes sense and the current model runs weaken this ridge to much, as always we will have to take a wait and see approach to this one.