Ivan making a run at Cat 5 again

[meteorjosh]

it's unlikely he'll make it, but there is no doubt that pressure is once again on its way down...NHC will wait for recon data before revising upward his strength now or forecast at landfall...get off the Mississippi and east Alabama coasts...you're asking to be killed (though I doubt you're looking at this discussion board).

[x-y-no]

I don't think he can strengthen that much in the room he's got. But he does look to be intensifying again.

[Clint_TX]

it's unlikely he'll make it, but there is no doubt that pressure is once again on its way down...NHC will wait for recon data before revising upward his strength now or forecast at landfall...get off the Mississippi and east Alabama coasts...you're asking to be killed (though I doubt you're looking at this discussion board).

It's going through a phase that could get the pressure in the mid 920's but I doubt Cat 5, the mesovortexes may cause near 5 damage tho...

[canegrl04]

I doubt cat 5,but possibly 150mph

[Possum Trot]

It's going through a phase that could get the pressure in the mid 920's but I doubt Cat 5, the mesovortexes may cause near 5 damage tho...

Mesovortexes?? Please explain?

[Ixolib]

I don't think he can strengthen that much in the room he's got. But he does look to be intensifying again.

When I was watching Charley do this from the comfort of my home (several hundred miles away), it didn't seem quite as personal as it does now watching Ivan do similar things - still from the comfort of the same home.....

[bahamaswx]

No way. I find it highly unlikely that pressure will drop below 930mb again.

[Josephine96]

it's still 135 at 2pm

[JMGNole]

Ixolib, why did you stay? You're nearly ground zero.

[dennis1x1]

pressure is only down 1mb...right? from 940 to 939?

is there a newer recon?

[meteorjosh]

there's been no recon in nearly 4 hours

[dennis1x1]

no....the latest was about 2 hours ago...

493
URNT12 KNHC 151611
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1612Z
B. 27 DEG 31 MIN N
88 DEG 10 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2577 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 290 DEG 98 KT
G. 188 DEG 014 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 11 C/ 3091 M
J. 19 C/ 3074 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF963 4009A IVAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 123 KT SE QUAD 1427Z.

[Ixolib]

Ixolib, why did you stay? You're nearly ground zero.

Fortunately, we're in a strong home, all boarded up, and above ten feet above the max surge we experienced with Camille. Been in this house a long time and have survived every hit since Betsy in '65. I know all canes are different, but I can either stay here, or evacuate to a hotel 200 miles north and end up experiencing the same conditions at either place. After much consideration, this just seemed the better choice.

[Hurricane Cheese]

All I can tell you is it looks like a Cat 4 on Satellite.


I did read someone post something about 127 kt flight level winds found...but that was over an hour and half ago...

[PrincessTiger]

Will they send planes into anymore today?????

They just reported here that the surf is about 12feet from the back steps of the FloraBama now, for those that know where that is.

[dennis1x1]

yes...it has rapidly improved on sat and looks like a cat 4......most impressive right now is the WV loop........if convection really fires and the eye contracts it could strengthen further in the short term.

[Guest]

I agree solid Cat 4.

[dennis1x1]

yes...planes will continue up until landfall....every couple of hours

[Ixolib]

Will they send planes into anymore today?????

They just reported here that the surf is about 12feet from the back steps of the FloraBama now, for those that know where that is.

Good thing they built the FlorBama like they did - no solid walls south to north - just a big area that'll let the surge flow through. Smart move on their part.

[Hurricane Cheese]

URNT14 KNHC 151646
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01263 10894 13047 11207 31073
02265 20893 23014 21110 30055
03266 30891 33982 31110 30072
04268 40889 43939 41211 29061
05269 50886 53892 51410 30066
06271 60884 63805 61411 29075
07273 70882 73632 71514 28098
MF273 M0882 MF098
OBS 01 AT 1543Z
OBS 07 AT 1608Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01278 10879 13611 11714 14075
02279 20877 23781 21311 15119
03281 30875 33888 31212 15097
04283 40873 43940 41212 16095
05285 50871 53990 51010 15090
06286 60870 63018 61010 14088
MF279 M0878 MF127
OBS 01 AT 1617Z
OBS 06 AT 1637Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
RMK AF963 4009A IVAN OB 15

They just found a 127kt winds, so it's still at least 135mph at the surface.

This was on the last thread about the Recon...939 mb...Closed Eyewall reported as well. But that was several hours ago I believe...