HURRICANE JEANNE/EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST
NOT JUST NEWS WEATHER CENTER
1115 AM WED SEPT 15TH 2004
Tropical Storm Jeanne is currently a strong tropical storm as she is taking aim at the Caribbean. She is already making it windy in the Islands as well as PR. Jeanne only needs to be bumped up 5 more mph to become the seasons' 6th hurricane.
Jeanne is currently in a decent environment as the NHC didn't expect her to reach hurricane status till nearly this weekend. She rapidly intensified yesterday to near borderline hurricane status.
Jeanne may have some terrain to put up with if she decides to take aim on the DR/Haiti region.. With this occuring.. This may weaken Jeanne and make her less of a significant threat to the CONUS..
However.. if Jeanne misses the DR.. she could easily rapidly intensify if there is a lack of shear and the waters remain very warm {temps easily in the low-mid 80's}.
Near the end of the forecast path is where it gets tricky. Early forecasts say a departing Ivan will stall in the Applachian Mtn. region perhaps as a high pressure system builds in. If the High builds in.. It will allow Jeanne to take a path, possibly eerily similar to Frances or even Andrew and make a beeline for Central or South Florida.
If the high retreats or does not build in as much.. a trough could come in and be Florida's saving grace yet again, sending what could be a powerful or weaker Jeanne up the eastern seaboard. NJN's amateur {myself} believes the high pressure system will build in keeping her to the south.
This is the NJN experimental 5 day forecast on Jeanne. Note=Geographical errors and intensity are subject to many mph and several 100 miles..
Today: Near PR and the rest of the Islands: Max winds: 75 mph
Thursday: Passing just to the north of the DR. Max Winds: 80 mph
Friday: Passing north of Haiti, and in the extreme SE Bahamas: Max Winds: 85 mph
Saturday: Near the Central Bahamas: Max Winds: 90 mph
Sunday: Nearing the coast of Florida: Max winds: 95 mph
This forecast does not include the possibility of rapid intensification.. Watches and Warnings for Fla would probably be issued as early as Saturday afternoon if this track holds..
DISCLAIMER: This forecast is strictly an amateur's opinion and should not be used to make decisions.. especially life or death decisions.. Please use local media outlets or the NHC for more precise and concise information
