8 AM=Jeanne at 70 mph,991 mbs

[cycloneye]

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004
 
...JEANNE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS RAINBANDS REACH EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABRERA SOUTHWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AFFECTING OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
ESTIMATED FROM SAN JUAN RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE
65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.
 
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING OVER
PUERTO RICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES ... 65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.
 
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 65.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN


[Guest]

If we can only get this storm moving faster it should be no big deal. Now crawling along this could get dangerous. I feel sorry for our friends down in Patillas. They are going to get the worst of it.

[Foladar]

I feel sorry for the Keys if this comes our way, and me too since I live alittle ways above the Keys..Florida City..I'm 100% sure everyone down there knows where that is (or would hope so)

[Steve H.]

Way too early to forecast exact track on Jeanne. I suspect that the track will shift to the right, but where is the big question. Luis, stsy safe, there could be a lot of flooding. Question for the forum....how mountainous is the terrain on Puerto Rico, and could this disrupt Jeanne significantly? I think she will stay north of the mountains of Hispaniola, but not sure about PR??? Any thoughts??

[jlauderdal]

Way too early to forecast exact track on Jeanne. I suspect that the track will shift to the right, but where is the big question. Luis, stsy safe, there could be a lot of flooding. Question for the forum....how mountainous is the terrain on Puerto Rico, and could this disrupt Jeanne significantly? I think she will stay north of the mountains of Hispaniola, but not sure about PR??? Any thoughts??

i suspect it will go left as it has been doing since yesterday. dont think the models have a handle on the ivan stall. models and nhc have been to far right this year. this is the peak of hurricane season and we are seeing it. i think everyone on this board except the texans have been affected by hurricanes this year.

[Steve H.]

Sorry, I did mean LEFT....my bad . No way this is going right, but I am wondering about the terrain over PR since it looks like She may spend some time going over the island.

[Josephine96]

I think this track will continue shifting towards a Fla landfall..

That bad boy of a high pressure will steer it the same way it steered Frances all the way here..

I do hope she accelerates a little because otherwise it could be the states' 3rd major {if Ivan hits Fla}.

[Ground_Zero_92]

This has been Florida with hurricanes this season:

[Patrick99]

I am surprised it's at 70 mph. It doesn't look all that impressive.

Anyway, maybe it's Miami's or the Keys' turn.

[Canelaw99]

Yeah we haven't really seen much action this season here in the Homestead/Keys area - I'm kinda feeling left out - j/k.....anyway....

With the storms this season, it's like they're playing baseball - one's up at bat (in this case, Ivan), and there's one on deck (Jeanne). The one's on deck just kinda hang around out there until the batting one is done, THEN it moves in.

[tronbunny]

Anybody know what time we lost cycloneye (Luis)?
I'm thinking about him.

[adelphi_sky]

I am surprised it's at 70 mph. It doesn't look all that impressive.

Anyway, maybe it's Miami's or the Keys' turn.

In the area of tropical cyclones, a picture isn't always worth a thousand words.

[Steve H.]

One saving grace here might be that Jeanne will go over Hispaniola. I was thinking that she would stay north, and I am still thinking that. But if the center stays on its current course it will hit the DR! That WOULD destroy her. If she stays north like I think she will, she will cross FL and head into the GOM.

[Foladar]

Yeah we haven't really seen much action this season here in the Homestead/Keys area - I'm kinda feeling left out - j/k.....anyway....

With the storms this season, it's like they're playing baseball - one's up at bat (in this case, Ivan), and there's one on deck (Jeanne). The one's on deck just kinda hang around out there until the batting one is done, THEN it moves in.

You got something over there? we just got a rain shower with Frances, nothing else here.

[Canelaw99]

Yup - that's what I had here too - bit of wind and a brief shower - seen afternoon thunderstorms worse than that LOL