Ivan Vortex, 940mb 123kt flt lvl winds in SE QUAD
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Hurricane Cheese
- Category 1
- Posts: 365
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
- Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)
So Dennis, I do assume you still expect Ivan to be a destructive Hurricane? I've heard you talk a lot about weakening, but haven't heard you talk a lot about what 125-135 mph winds will do. Perhaps all this weakening talk should include a reminder about just how strong it will indeed be!
Weren't Opal and Hugo between 125-135?
Weren't Opal and Hugo between 125-135?
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"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
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dennis1x1
The hurricane is now passing
over a warm Gulf Eddy which could aid intensification...although
data collected by a NOAA research aircraft yesterday suggest the
Eddy may not be as potent as previously thought using satellite
measurements. The upper-level outflow pattern is well-established
north of the cyclone at the present time with no shear evident. On
the other hand...there is considerable dry air in the west
semicircle that could still penetrate the core...and the shear is
expected to increase near landfall. The bottom line is that I
expect some net weakening of Ivan prior to landfall...but still
expect it to make landfall as a major hurricane.
Thankfully, by cherry-picking out of that entire discussion your one chosen point, you've confirmed what so many of us have suspected all along. You are more interested in stroking your forecasting ego than discussing actual events as they transpire. Our suspicions having been confirmed, we can now move on.
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dennis1x1
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Innotech
- Category 5
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things need to be put into perspective here. If Ivan had started out as a weak Cat 1, then suddenly blown up to Cat 3, it would be "bombing!!! going for Cat 5!!! Cat 5!!!" But no, it actually made it to Cat 5, and so even though its only weakenbed by 15 or so mph, people are shrugging off a still MAJOR CAT 4 hurricane as if its a weakling. Id hate for any of you to discover just how "weak" 135-140 mph winds are.
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dennis1x1
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Hurricane Cheese
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- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
- Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)
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dennis1x1
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caneman
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flashflood1998
- Tropical Depression
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clueless newbie
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:11 pm
dennis1x1 wrote:the sat pic has definitely improved in the last 2 hours......looks like an outer eyewall has been established.....and is improving.....the weakening trend has ended.
I think you were fooled by a small symmetric eye this morning - you thought the structure of the inner core was fine, just convection was not there.
The fact is that in the morning what you were seeing as an eye was just a clearing in the big 50nm eye Ivan had at that time. The actual structure of that eyewall was actually worse at 6AM then at 11AM.
Unfortunately, it seems like Ivan got his act together just in time to intensify before the landfall, or at least to stop his weakening. The good thing is, with the eye that huge, he is unlikely to intensify very rapidly. The bad thing is, with the eye that huge, he is unlikely to weaken rapidly, and the path of the destruction will be huge. The path of Charles destruction could easily fit into Ivan's eye.
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caneman
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Hurricane Cheese
- Category 1
- Posts: 365
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
- Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)
The winds won't go DOWN!!
They'll at the LEAST stay the same if not increase back to 140+ mph by tonight...
They'll at the LEAST stay the same if not increase back to 140+ mph by tonight...
Last edited by Hurricane Cheese on Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
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