Ivan Vortex, 940mb 123kt flt lvl winds in SE QUAD

[yoda]

URNT12 KNHC 151432
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1438Z
B. 27 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 02 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2579 M
D. 80 KT
E. 139 DEG 045 NM
F. 212 DEG 123 KT
G. 126 DEG 030 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 11 C/ 3075 M
J. 17 C/ 3038 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF963 4009A IVAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 123 KT SE QUAD 1427Z.

[Brent]

Looks like it's remaining steady right now.

One good thing about a large system like Ivan is the odds of it rapidly intensifying right before landfall like Charley or Andrew(which were small systems) is very slim. The bad news is... it probably won't weaken a lot either.

[Josephine96]

But the pressure does keep going up.. which is sorta a plus I guess

[logybogy]

Not really, as the storm weakens the energy from the core will spread out, so you may not get 160 mph winds 10 miles from the center, but you could get 100-120 mph winds 70-100 miles from the center.

You won't get small isolated areas of severe catastrophic damage. You'll get vast vast areas of moderate damage.

[Anonymous]

939 and 940 are the same, unless its a 5+ mb rise dont take to much out of it. It has 120 mph winds in a weaker quad tho.

[MBryant]

Am I wrong or is the Northeast Usually the strongest quad, but NOT ALWAYS. I think I remember exceptions.

[Anonymous]

North East or North usually.

[dennis1x1]

until they report a higher reading...thats the highest they found....regardless of quadrant.....

sat continues to look unimpressive......

[Anonymous]

Look for the flight level winds in the NE quad Dennis, I assure you they will be higher. And your standards for a hurricane must be high because Ivan looks mighty impressive on sat.

[dennis1x1]

again....the highest wind found is 123kts in the se quadrant.......when/if higher winds are found it will be reported.

the eye is not impressive....dry air around it.......the cloudtops arent impressive....even the visible shot has a cloud filled eye now.


and "impressive" is relative......for a cat 3 storm it doesnt look too bad.

[B-Bear]

It never ceases to amaze me that some people are so caught up in fulfilling their predictions that they will see what they want to see, regardless of what is actually occurring.

There is a lot of red in this satellite image, indicative of convection, for a storm that is supposedly "weakening." This is more convection than was present earlier this morning. So if weakening storms have greater amounts of convection while they're weakening, that would be news to me.

Now, that being said, he may not be strengthening. He may only be holding his own and becoming better organized. But he sure as hell doesn't seem to be weakening at all.

[Anonymous]

God he looks so unorganized on IR.

[dennis1x1]

the inner core looks worse every frame....and that is what will determine weakening or strengthening. i agree...it amazes me that people will see what they want to see to fulfill their predictions......even dismissing recon readings.

[Andy_L]

what time do we lose the sat picture today???

[Anonymous]

So Dennis you are telling us that the inner core looks worse now than it did this morning? Im not trying to meet my prediction, I called 140 at landfall which I think will happen.

[dennis1x1]

never really, goes 10 will continue through the night....goes 12 will be down from 3:45 to 6:00 zulu......11pm - 2am cdt.

[logybogy]

There were no deep reds wrapping around the center this morning. There are now.

[dennis1x1]

now:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-879W.jpg

6am:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... N-879W.jpg



yes..that is what im saying. and this isnt a discussion on how cold the cloud tops are...this is a discussion of the inner core...the eye....

[B-Bear]

And you think that storm looks worse now than at 6 a.m.? LOL

[dennis1x1]

lol....of course when recon proves my point.....the eqt is broken.....or the pilots were drunk..or or...

oh well...its a fun discussion anyway......i did think people understood the concept of "round, defined eye" though.....i guess pretty colors are easier to follow.