Checked the NHC forecast positions a minute ago after being away from the computer since yesterday afternoon. Just wanted to make sure this is not some sort of misprint. The later forecast positions read as follows:
72HR VT 18/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
So, Ivan basically does not move for 3 days??! Man, I better start building an ark!
Is Ivan going to stall after landfall?
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TyphoonTim
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jlauderdal wrote:yoda wrote:Yup, Ivan stalls... I don't know the full reasons why, but expect a whole lotta rain my friend!
ivan stalls which has big ramnifications for jeanne..stay tuned.
No Doubt.. Does it move east and weaken the ridge or does it slide north or even NW and help build the east atlantic ridge..
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HurricaneGirl
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What's really interesting - and something I can't get a handle on - is what happens over the next week. Some of the models actually show Ivan drifting back into the Gulf, but I'm guessing those are having trouble with the two storms together. Bastardi is thinking floods of 'epic proportions' with a virtual stall maybe of up to 4 or 5 days and up to 2' of rain in areas that don't need it. I think that's the extreme point, but with the TPC coming on board with a 1-3 day potential stall, it's tough to say. This will be a bonkers 7-day period for the US - especially if Jeanne is able to bend back westward and become another FL or Gulf threat. Hopefully one of the met-gurus will take a stab at sorting through all the models and determining which solutions are correct, which biases need correction and who's going to pay next.
Steve
Steve
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That could also mean more flooding from the springs in northern Florida. There are many caves in the "TAG" (Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia) area. These caves channel the rainfall down to the springs and "blue holes" that are in Northern Florida.
Looks like the whole Southeast is going to be flooded...
Looks like the whole Southeast is going to be flooded...
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