Ivan is rapidly weakening

[Anonymous]

Prior to landfall Ivan will weakening rapidly which is great news. See NHC 11am discussion.

Track is still on target, but intensity will not be in Cat 4 range, more like Cat 2 or 3 with winds at 110 kts or less.

[TexasStooge]

Well, it's still a very dangerous storm.

[Josephine96]

I don't know how it could weaken unless it enters a pocket of cold water or be slammed with dry air..

I do hope it does weaken.. But I wouldn't be surprised if it remained a 4..

[simplykristi]

I believe that Ivan will make landfall as a cat4.

Kristi

[Anonymous]

No doubt still very dangerous, but weakening according to NHC is GOOD NEWS!

[Josephine96]

yes it is.. if it does weaken though

[mascpa]

Weakening? Maybe. Weakening rapidly? Not so sure about that.

[AlabamaDave]

You may need to re-read the discussion. There was no mention of "rapid weakening." The expect some weakening before landfall, but still a dangerous major hurricane.

[CaptinCrunch]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

Does this look like Ivan is weakening, notice the Eye is very well defined and constricted

[vbhoutex]

from the last Advisory issued at 10.39am

Ivan continues as as a extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
saffir/simpson scale hurricane scale, with maximum sustained winds near 135 mph,
with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next
24 hours, but ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane, category
three or higher.

[rdcrds]

I stil say and have for a week now it will be cat 2 at most when it hits but most people refuse to look at the models and see what the shear is along with the colder water temps.People get it 110 max winds and i have said it for a week now.

[dennis1x1]

assuming he doesnt strengthen rapidly in the next 6 hours i agree.......min cat 3 at worst.....


cat 1: 10%
cat 2: 25%
cat 3: 55%
cat 4: 10%
cat 5: 0%

[kck70]

Ivan will still cause alot of problems and be a big pain in the @ss!

[ColdWaterConch]

Prior to landfall Ivan will weakening rapidly which is great news. See NHC 11am discussion.

Track is still on target, but intensity will not be in Cat 4 range, more like Cat 2 or 3 with winds at 110 kts or less.

It is forecast at 115Kts at landfall...hardly "rapid weakening".

[Josephine96]

More like staying near current strength

[adelphi_sky]

Remember guys. How many times has Ivan weakened, then strengthened, then weakened, etc. It's a fluctuation, not a trend. It could very well re-intensify. This is just a picture taken at a certain point in time. I'll believe it's weakening trend if by 11pm, it's a cat 2.

[Derek Ortt]

that intensity forecast has no merit as the eddy data was total junk. None of the probes worked!

[caneman]

I would trust the NHC intensity forecast as much as I would trust a Bank Robber with my account #. Don't think about flaming me because NHC is constantly talking about their weakness in this area.

[Saitex]

Prior to landfall Ivan will weakening rapidly which is great news. See NHC 11am discussion.

Track is still on target, but intensity will not be in Cat 4 range, more like Cat 2 or 3 with winds at 110 kts or less.

I think subjects like this are irresponsible. It's not rapidly weakening, it is weakening ever so slightly. Recon just from a few minutes ago has pressure at 940 and estimated surface winds at 135MPH still. But as long as that eyewall is formed well and closed, it's not going to rapidly weaken.

[rdcrds]

is it me or are people not looking at the shear #1 or the colder water temps now that it is past the eddy and moving more north it is going to keep on going down.In fact the best wind i see right now is 129 MPH.


110 Max at landfall