Now That the North Turn has Begun.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What are the chances of Ivan sticking to it? Is the weakness over the Gulf States going to stay or move out/or weaken and give Ivan another chance to go more NW??? Any answers, comments. Please!

[Ixolib]

What are the chances of Ivan sticking to it? Is the weakness over the Gulf States going to stay or move out/or weaken and give Ivan another chance to go more NW??? Any answers, comments. Please!

Wondering the same thing... Still trying to think this won't be near as bad impact on Biloxi if it slips under us to the east....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Come on. 100 views and no one can help us out on this??? Anyone with the just any amount of forecasting skills.

[CaptinCrunch]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=45207&start=20

[vbhoutex]

Not much chance of a turn back NW IMO. The trough is continuing to move East from the West and Ivan will start to feel that more later today I think. I also got a radiosonde report out of Eglin from late yesterday that indicated there is still some weakness in the 500mb levels and if this is still true that would also help Ivan to trend N or even NNE as he is approaching land. My forecast all along has been almost an Opal like run into the coast after the N component, which will put Ivan's landfall near Navarre. I am watching to see if the trend continues, which it is seeming to on the North component. I hope I am wrong on both my strength and landfall because that will put it in right over my Mother's area.

[PurdueWx80]

I honestly still see motion near 335-340 degrees, although it's pretty wobbly. The ridge last night was only along the Gulf coast (although it is extremely difficult to verify this since there are few obs over the GOM...but I presume the NOAA plane sampled this area extensively) so it is still slightly possible that a more NW motion could occur prior to landfall. Of course, at that point we will start dealing w/ frictional effects of parts of Ivan going over land. I don't think the trough out west is close enough to have any effect on Ivan whatsoever.

[otowntiger]

What are the chances of Ivan sticking to it? Is the weakness over the Gulf States going to stay or move out/or weaken and give Ivan another chance to go more NW??? Any answers, comments. Please!

It's impossible to say for sure, but in my opinion, I don't see any more westward moves by this storm. I'm basing that on the official forecast consistantly bending him over to the right slightly after he begins to move due north, which is what he is doing now. I'm not proficient at reading the synoptics that are setting up ahead so an actual Met would need to comment beyond my speculation.

[gboudx]

I'm sure people will latch on to every little wobble West and scream that NO is doomed. However, all met sites I'm reading and researching say NO is going to be spared. Those in Mobile need prayers and lots of it.

[PurdueWx80]

NO is protected in the sense that a storm has to be moving WNW towards the city so that as much water as possible is forced into the Lake from the ESE. There should still be a surge and the NW-N winds on the west side will force some big time flooding on teh south side of the lake, but NO should be ok unless there is some freakish turn WNW near landfall. The 500 mb ridge this morning is still strong just to the NE of the storm, but w/ the poor spatial resolution of the balloon launches, it is hard to see just how strong it is immediately north of the storm. The lowest heights in front of the storm are at Jackson, MS and N.O. but it's really hard to see what's in between there and Tally.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_500.gif

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thank You. I appreciate everyones help.