Morning Ivan forecast... landfall at Mobile

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

graphics in about 5 mins

[PurdueWx80]

Did you mean "may gain a couple of tenths of longitude" or latitude?

[Derek Ortt]

lon, did I say lat?

[Derek Ortt]

I fixed it to lon, lol

[PurdueWx80]

Yep Easy to get those stupid words mixed up.

[Derek Ortt]

graphics now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

[Cyclone Runner]

Given the 40-50 km diameter of the eye, if Ivan now were to move straight north as you forecast, landfall would be made from Pascagoula in the west to Pensacola in the east. I never liked talking about landfall as if it is a point or exact place. In this case it will be a wide 50 km stretch of 3-state area. While Mobile may well be in the middle, the whole eyewall area counts as landfall. In fact the effects on either side may be worse than the centre as at least the middle get some hours of relief from the calm of the eye.

[tronbunny]

<snip>In this case it will be a wide 50 km stretch of 3-state area. While Mobile may well be in the middle, the whole eyewall area counts as landfall. In fact the effects on either side may be worse than the centre as at least the middle get some hours of relief from the calm of the eye.

I may be speaking out of ignorance, here, but I think that was the case with Frances.
Our coastal areas north of landfall (with the storm moving NW) seemed to get the worst.
While I've seen and heard that the NE quadrant of the storm gets the worst conditions, wouldn't that actual area of major concern be relative to direction of storm movement, also?

[Cyclone Runner]

While I've seen and heard that the NE quadrant of the storm gets the worst conditions, wouldn't that actual area of major concern be relative to direction of storm movement, also?

Yes in terms of overall wind speed and tidal surge, a good rule of thumb is that if you are standing in the direction of storm movement than the right side of the eyewall in the Northern Hemisphere and the left side of the eyewall in Southern Hemisphere will have the highest wind speeds because the overall wind speeds within the eyewall are enhanced by the movement of the storm itself. This is also the area in which the storm surge is pushed onshore. This generally will equate to more damage in this area but not always as a variety of other factors may come into play.

[tronbunny]

Thank you, CycloneRunner.

and thanks for the inside track, Derek.

I really appreciate the effort that so many of our members put into keeping us informed.

[simplyme]

Unfortunately the NE quadrant is also the one that tends to get the spin-off tornados. Definitely not the area you'd like to find your hometown in if a hurricane is approaching.

[Derek Ortt]

we can expect complete destruction from Gufport all the way to Panana City due to surge, and from the winds where the eye hits

[tronbunny]

we can expect complete destruction from Gufport all the way to Panana City due to surge, and from the winds where the eye hits

Derek,
I know this may be morbid curiosity, but in your educated estimate, how far inland, and what manner of damage (wind, water) should we expect in that area?

[Anonymous]

I think itll have higher dollar amounts than Charley for sure.

[Sanibel]

Congratulations to all the posters last night who nailed this landfall hours before the mild curve north. The synoptics were pretty simple, but New Orleans was safe around midnight last night.

Reason would say Ivan will bull up Mobile Bay at 125mph as a landfall from here. Maybe Pascagoula if he quirks left unexpectedly...


I don't want to brag but I called this precise landfall on september 8th when a poster asked on another board...

[Derek Ortt]

maybe cane force winds up to 50-75 miles inland

[B-Bear]

Congratulations to all the posters last night who nailed this landfall hours before the mild curve north. The synoptics were pretty simple, but New Orleans was safe around midnight last night.

Reason would say Ivan will bull up Mobile Bay at 125mph as a landfall from here. Maybe Pascagoula if he quirks left unexpectedly...


I don't want to brag but I called this precise landfall on september 8th when a poster asked on another board...

Mobile indeed looks likely. But, in my experience, celebrations over forecasting accuracy are best advised to take place after landfall. It ain't over to it's over.

[Mello1]

Congratulations to all the posters last night who nailed this landfall hours before the mild curve north. The synoptics were pretty simple, but New Orleans was safe around midnight last night.

Reason would say Ivan will bull up Mobile Bay at 125mph as a landfall from here. Maybe Pascagoula if he quirks left unexpectedly...


I don't want to brag but I called this precise landfall on september 8th when a poster asked on another board...

Mobile indeed looks likely. But, in my experience, celebrations over forecasting accuracy are best advised to take place after landfall. It ain't over to it's over.

Indeed. I don't find anything congradulatory about this storm.

[loon]

ahh the old "I don't wanna brag....BUT!"

heheh

How many boards you on Sanibel? heh. I looked back I didn't see you call Mobile on Sept 8th on the other board. Probably talking about a different one. I never realized there were so many boards until I came to this one.

I'm curious if Ivan is going to flare up again, I keep seeing pockets of convection popping up...

cheers,
the loon