Ivan is looking more impressive on satelitte

[logybogy]

[canegrl04]

He should be going up in strength today

[michaelwmoss]

I wouldn't totally bet that it will strengthen any more today. Look at the Reference to the Microwave data on the storm:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=45208

There has been quite a bit of dry air come into this system. Not to mention last discussion stated the Banding Convection around the center is weakening.

My prediction now is 135 mph at Landfall. A very Hugo-Like Storm so still very distructive.

There will most likely be a very serious rain event for the Mountains though. Could even be some tornadoes. Even more so if Evan goes Extratropical and merges with that very strong trough out in the Central Plains.

[EarthStormFire]

I see large bands of holes in Ivan, where their dont seem to be cloud coverage. The eye wall has collapsed. I expect it to be cat 1 or 2 at landing.

[michaelwmoss]

Let's hope predictions like yours become TRUE! It can weaken to a tropical storm and that would make me VERY happy!!

[Hurrilurker]

Looks decent on visible but on infrared it looks terrible (relative to what is was just 24 hours ago). Very intense convection is almost nonexistent. We'll see what today brings though, with the supposedly warmer water. At this rate it'll be down to a Cat-2, but I do think it'll remain at 3 somehow. Ivan's a fighter!

[logybogy]

She looks terrible on infraed? Umm, no.

[adelphi_sky]

I think what people don't understand is that you don't have to have a perfectly round hurricane for it to be a stong one. Mother nature doesn't care whether she draws within the lines. If she wants a raggedy cat 5, she'll make one.

[logybogy]

Exactly, Camille wasn't exactly picture perfect in presentation either.

[PurdueWx80]

LOL...it's sort of difficult to compare satellite pictures between 1969 and 2004. To me, it looks like Camille had a very strong CDO w/ intense convection and a nearly clear eye at that point.

[Innotech]

whats scary is that Ivan looks like Camille now, and has several times before also.

[clueless newbie]

Uhm, I don't think Camille was a Cat5 at that point in her life.. Maybe Cat2 or 3.

And yes, her CDO looks more impressive then Ivan's. Ivan looks like Isabel when she was weakening before landfall.

12:15Z looks a bit stronger then 11:45, though.

[Hurrilurker]

She looks terrible on infraed? Umm, no.

Compared to a day or so ago? Umm, yes. Used to have a huge, solid, red blob of intense convection extending over 50 miles from the eye, now that's completely gone. I can't show the comparison from yesterday since I didn't save pics, but here's one from a few days ago (and it was actually having some problems reorganizing at this point):


Big difference. I'm not saying Ivan is dead by any stretch. Obviously it's still an extremely powerful, dangerous storm, but I don't see how you can argue the IR does not look considerably weaker than yesterday. BTW, it's a he, not she.

[Hokie1]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_07/anis.html

[Thunder44]

She looks terrible on infraed? Umm, no.

Compared to a day or so ago? Umm, yes. Used to have a huge, solid, red blob of intense convection extending over 50 miles from the eye, now that's completely gone. I can't show the comparison from yesterday since I didn't save pics, but here's one from a few days ago (and it was actually having some problems reorganizing at this point):


Big difference. I'm not saying Ivan is dead by any stretch. Obviously it's still an extremely powerful, dangerous storm, but I don't see how you can argue the IR does not look considerably weaker than yesterday. BTW, it's a he, not she.

The eye is much clearer on the infrared this morning than back than, even when it was stronger. It actually looked more ragged back then with deeper convection. And it looks to be getting better organzined in the last few frames.

[vortex100]

After a small period of entraining some dry air Ivan looks to be back on track with some strengthening over the next few hours. Ivan is now moving into an area of light and decreasing shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. By 3 pm CDT the eyewall should have restrengthened and I would not be surprised to see winds increasing back toward 130kts.

[caneman]

After a small period of entraining some dry air Ivan looks to be back on track with some strengthening over the next few hours. Ivan is now moving into an area of light and decreasing shear and very warm sea surface temperatures. By 3 pm CDT the eyewall should have restrengthened and I would not be surprised to see winds increasing back toward 130kts.

Yes, very nice Sat. presentation. You don't like to see them strengthning as they approach shore. Not good.

[caneman]

I think he is moving much faster than indicated at 8:00. LEts see if this verifes at 11:00

[Anonymous]

He's getting much much better organized, seems to be responding to the warm water.

[Derek Ortt]

NHC is likely to lower the winds at 11 according to the ATCF, though we're keeping them at 120KT