Pensacola in the bullseye?

stormy1959 · #1 Postby **stormy1959** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:03 am

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Looks like an eastward wobble.

caneman · #2 Postby **caneman** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:07 am

stormy1959 wrote:http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Looks like an eastward wobble.

I noticed that my self. And think it very well could be Pensacola need to see if a trend. These darn things are so fickle. it could now up end 40-60 miles East of Mobile and they wouldn't see that much affect. Same thing happened to us in Tampa with Charley and we waited for 2 or 3 days and then 2 hours out a NE jog by 40 miles spares us and Tampa got maybe 20 to 30 miles an hour winds.. Go figure

otowntiger · #3 Postby **otowntiger** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:16 am

Even if the storm did hit Mobile head on, then Pensacola would probably get much of the brunt anyway. Now any kind of wobble that way would solidify this ascertion. The storm appears to be done with any westward movement, IMHO.

aumoore · #4 Postby **aumoore** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:23 am

My home is in Pace, Fl about 8 miles NNE of pensacola or about 22 miles due north of Pensacola beach. For those who do not know Pensacola Beach is actually a little east of Pensacola and used to be part of Santa Rosa county but they sold it to Escambia county about 60 years ago. Without this purchase Escambia county would only have the Perdido Beach area which on the FL-AL boarder.

I have been saying for days that my gut feeling is the eye will make landfall in the Orange Beach, AL area east of Mobile bay.

#5 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:26 am

Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:43 pm Post subject:

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Ivan will make Landfall between New Orleans and Gulf Port, MS

caneman · #6 Postby **caneman** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:29 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:43 pm Post subject:

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Ivan will make Landfall between New Orleans and Gulf Port, MS

Looking like Mobile Bay and East to me.

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:39 am

One radiosonde sounding I was provided last nite out of Eglin indicated that even though things seemed to show that the weakness had basically been closed off that there was still a weakness in the 500mb area to the East of the currently progged landfall area. Note that this was yesterday and not necessarily now. However, the conclusion of the person who originally posted it(met out of Eglin) was that it showed a greater possibility of the NNE-NE jog earlier than anticipated and a better possibility of a NW FL hit. We shall see. My prayers go out to all in the path. If the warm water eddy does what is possible with Ivan I fear for all anywhere near the center. It could be closer to a Camille type scenario than many want to think. Hopefully dry air entrainig will make this not happen. Anyway we look at this, unless there is some MAJOR WEAKENING this will be a disaster for many.

Tallygrl · #8 Postby **Tallygrl** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:05 am

is and esatward turn towards Pensacola really possible at this point?? (grant you it does look like it from that link) :roll:

caneman · #9 Postby **caneman** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:08 am

Tallygrl wrote:is and esatward turn towards Pensacola really possible at this point?? (grant you it does look like it from that link)

Charley came in 40 miles East at the end. Frances went a little more left than most thought. Something about land interaction. WOuldn't be surprised.

Pensacola in the bullseye?

Pensacola in the bullseye?

Re: Pensacola in the bullseye?

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