wkrg met just confirmed IVAN

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rtd2
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wkrg met just confirmed IVAN

#1 Postby rtd2 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:34 am

IS undergoing an ERC thus jumping and wobbling around
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addictedfisher18
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#2 Postby addictedfisher18 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:35 am

I thought so, im sticking with the nhc on this 1
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#3 Postby rtd2 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:38 am

UHM also just said eye went from 45 nm to 60nm .... recon in there NOW
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GuffMorlix
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#4 Postby GuffMorlix » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:39 am

Helpu us newbies out. What's an ERC, and what does it mean if Ivan is undergoing one?
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#5 Postby Chilly_Water » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:39 am

eye replacement cycle
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#6 Postby addictedfisher18 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:40 am

im new to this too but eye replac. cycle and i think that means its possibly strengthening?
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#7 Postby jj_frap » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:40 am

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html
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Sean in New Orleans
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#8 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:43 am

It's complete...the system is just a tad west of the NHC track right now...
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#9 Postby addictedfisher18 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:45 am

which will put it where? where do you think it makes landfall sean
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#10 Postby GuffMorlix » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:45 am

So what do y'all think? Will Ivan complete its ERC before landfall and have time to strengthen?
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#11 Postby TSmith274 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:49 am

I'm afraid so. ERC's don't take too long. Think of it as Ivan guzzling a bottle of Gatoraid. It'll freshen him up and he'll look stronger.
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#12 Postby Biloxi » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:51 am

Crazy. Recon finds closed eye but 60nm wide with pressure slightly up. This could mean that the eye will tighten as IVAN strenghtens.
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#13 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:02 am

:eek: Holy Crap! :eek:
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#14 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:07 am

Ivan could become a cat 5 again from that hot pocket of water :eek:
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#15 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Sep 15, 2004 6:47 am

canegrl04 wrote:Ivan could become a cat 5 again from that hot pocket of water :eek:


Nyet!
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#16 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:01 am

Unfortunately with a contracting eye and extra warm watr ahead she is correct that this is possible and actually probable unless there is a LOT of dry air entrainment and that would have to be to the center to really knock her down.
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#17 Postby Innotech » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:04 am

Cat 5 isnt likely at all. the structure is much worse than yesterday, alhough the core remains strong.
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Re: wkrg met just confirmed IVAN

#18 Postby donsutherland1 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:40 am

One can also see the wobbling in Ivan's 3-hour movements:

3-Hour Period ended 9/15 9z: 324° Northwest
3-Hour Period ended 9/15 12: 353° North

However, the overall gradual turn more to the north continues as can be seen in the 12-hour increments:

12-Hour Period ended 9/15 9z: 336° North-Northwest
12-Hour Period ended 9/15 12z: 337° North-Northwest
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Re: wkrg met just confirmed IVAN

#19 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:42 am

donsutherland1 wrote:One can also see the wobbling in Ivan's 3-hour movements:

3-Hour Period ended 9/15 9z: 324° Northwest
3-Hour Period ended 9/15 12: 353° North

However, the overall gradual turn more to the north continues as can be seen in the 12-hour increments:

12-Hour Period ended 9/15 9z: 336° North-Northwest
12-Hour Period ended 9/15 12z: 337° North-Northwest


IT has moved .8W and only .1 N since 5:00. Looks like the North component has occured and should be official at 11:00 if this motion holds for the next 2 hours.
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LSU2001
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#20 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:21 am

Please explain how .8west and .1 north shows north movement. I am a newbie and do not understand.
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