[/url]Jeanne and the UKMET
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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jlauderdal
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Re: Jeanne and the UKMET
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:HUH....a98e has passed the crack pipe to UKMET.....LOL
maybe not...ivan will psotion and motion will have alot do with jeanne..ulmet isentirely possible..medles looked the same with ivan a few days ago depicting a stall and that is exactly what is supposed to happen.
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donsutherland1
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Re: Jeanne and the UKMET
Perhaps not.
What the UKMET is sensing is the rebuilding and westward expansion of the a west Atlantic ridge. According to the model, this will trap Jeanne and turn her back toward the U.S.
A similar thing happened with hurricane Izen in 1966, though at a lower latitude than what the UKMET is indicating for Ivan:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Overall, I believe the odds of Jeanne escaping harmlessly out to sea ala Gert (1981) are lower than those of its making a U.S. landfall. If one examines the ECMWF, one finds the aforementioned ridge building overhead. This is very different from 1981 when a very deep trough was centered in the southeastern United States to recurve Gert.
Gert's Track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
The synoptic setup for Gert's Recurvature:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=317300
ECMWF 9/18 0z:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=317305
ECMWF 9/19 0z:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=317307
What the UKMET is sensing is the rebuilding and westward expansion of the a west Atlantic ridge. According to the model, this will trap Jeanne and turn her back toward the U.S.
A similar thing happened with hurricane Izen in 1966, though at a lower latitude than what the UKMET is indicating for Ivan:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Overall, I believe the odds of Jeanne escaping harmlessly out to sea ala Gert (1981) are lower than those of its making a U.S. landfall. If one examines the ECMWF, one finds the aforementioned ridge building overhead. This is very different from 1981 when a very deep trough was centered in the southeastern United States to recurve Gert.
Gert's Track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
The synoptic setup for Gert's Recurvature:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=317300
ECMWF 9/18 0z:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=317305
ECMWF 9/19 0z:
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attac ... tid=317307
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weatherwoman
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ukmet might be the only right model right now the hi is so strong to the north and more hi pressure is going to move in over it as it tries to come nw but will stall and get pushed back west could be another one for florida to keep an eye on, we had a meeting about it last nite at the nws office here in nc till a long way off and it might not even get moving good before middle of next week.
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