4AM update ...sorta

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rtd2
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4AM update ...sorta

#1 Postby rtd2 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:43 am

Not official but Local wx says 4 AM 140MPH 938 MB NNW @ 12 26.1N 87.8 W

just getting info. out a little early ***official stuff on its way****
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arlwx
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#2 Postby arlwx » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:02 am

The official updates agree with you.
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#3 Postby cloud_galaxy » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:06 am

that would be 18 min to north, 39 min to west from last vortex (7:15, which had a wobble to the north), i.e. still a NW course overall.

Therefore, I see landfall on the western bank of the Mississippi. Unfortunately, that would bring Ivan's NE quadrant over New Orleans !
:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

My prayers go out to everyone in Ivan's path and I do hope that Ivan will lose considerably in strength till then!!
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EarthStormFire

#4 Postby EarthStormFire » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:10 am

Ivan is dying. The eddy wont do a thing to help it.
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#5 Postby jj_frap » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:14 am

EarthStormFire wrote:Ivan is dying. The eddy wont do a thing to help it.


Sadly, you're -removed-...

If only it were true.
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#6 Postby rtd2 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:15 am

MIGHT check out the latest WV loop before you say that...STRONG 3 AT l/f
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#7 Postby MBismyPlayground » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:16 am

EarthStormFire wrote:Ivan is dying. The eddy wont do a thing to help it.



Dude, pull your head out of that hole you obviously have it buried in.




Image
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Matthew5

#8 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:17 am

Ok Earthstormfire it was doing a slight weaking earlier. But the dry air that was coming in from the southwest has cut off. The outflow has improved all together in all quads. In look at that central core...It is starting to get nice in round with deeper convection forming around it. The eye is looking good. Heck if I did not know better with that warm eddy it could very will get a little stronger... :grrr:
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#9 Postby FloridaHawk82 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:36 am

I understand there are "steering reasons" that validate the official NHC path, but can someone please explain how Ivan is supposed to follow that path when it appears to already be WEST of the projected path????

With the 4am being 87.8W and 26.1N, Ivan only needs to move 1.7W and 3.9N to landfall in the "nightmare location, which I believe is around 89.5W and 30.0N.

That would be movement ratio of 70% North and 30% West to landfall at the "straightline" path that Ivan showed us for a 6 hour period (SHOWN IN THE FOLLOWING LINK I CREATED).

http://www.customermotivators.com/IvanEyes.htm

I am admittedly not met-savvy, but simple logic sometimes rules...

Where am I "off" here???
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#10 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:17 am

Local met here in BR La. just showed La. out of projected cone. I cannot believe it!!! forecast 20 to 30 mph winds and some spotty rain. with some stronger squalls. what i am seeing here is not that optomistic.
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#11 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:22 am

lsu2001 wrote:Local met here in BR La. just showed La. out of projected cone. I cannot believe it!!! forecast 20 to 30 mph winds and some spotty rain. with some stronger squalls. what i am seeing here is not that optomistic.


HA...20 TO 30.....that's forecasted for here......
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