That's It...I'm Calling a NW Movement Now...

[Sean in New Orleans]

I've seen enough...the eclipse is over... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Biloxi]

I thought it was a little more west before the 1am advisory but just attributed it to my eyes going bad. This latest loop lookes pretty much nw.

[HurricaneJoe22]

it's on a track right for Biloxi

[TSmith274]

Yeah, that's NW. I don't care what the NHC says. Should be interesting to see the new track at 4am, not that I have any confidence in that.

[rtd2]

Anybody got a link w/o that jump at the end? I cant commit yet

[TSmith274]

Well, that jump at the end is the eclipse. But, is it weakening at all? I can't tell.

[Sean in New Orleans]

And I'm not sure if that SW flow out of Texas is going to move Ivan. It looks like Ivan has created his own environment and is simply pushing (at least the front edgo) of that flow right out of the way. Re-look at the satellite loop and focus around Alexandria, LA

[TSmith274]

Yeah, that flow seems to have stopped and is kinda wrapping around the western edge.

[rtd2]

And I'm not sure if that SW flow out of Texas is going to move Ivan. It looks like Ivan has created his own environment and is simply pushing (at least the front edgo) of that flow right out of the way. Re-look at the satellite loop and focus around Alexandria, LA




Yeah heard 2 local mets say that the front associated with that FLOW is too weak to turn IVAN very much

[Biloxi]

I also heard our local met say the flow from west was possibly to weak to make a difference in the track.

[FloridaHawk82]

Sean,

I'm certainly not met-savvy, but it looks NW to me...

Also, I know the path is forecast to curve, but try the following ...

Sometimes, the most low-tech methods reveal the most.

1. Pull up the following loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

2. Stop the animation and step to frame 1.

3. Stick a Post-It note on your screen, with the corner on the right-center of the eyewall.

4. Step to the last frame and place another Post-It in a similar fashion.

5. Place the edge of a paper precisely on the two corners and extend the path to the coast.

IF (and of course it is unlikely) the recent path trend continued, the landfall would be spot on 90.0W, with the right side of the eyewall passing just SE of Pilottown, directly up the MS Delta....

To the Pro-Mets, my apologies for the unscientific extrapolation!!

[mobilebay]

Last two recon fixes 45 MIN N, 21 MIn W, A true NNW motion.

[bahamaswx]

I think it's just a case of all the NO posters wanting Ivan to come to them. Looks NNW to me.

[AggieSpirit]

So continued NW motion = bad for Sean?

[AggieSpirit]

I am an Arlington, Texas poster. No bias on landfall here. I just want 0 deaths from this thing.

[kokomo]

Plot the vector and don't consider extra variables and looks like New Orleans to me. Forward momentum picks up and you can forget any delineation from this till after landfall.

<img src=http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v116/the-watcher/ivan1a.gif>

[southerngale]

I think it's just a case of all the NO posters wanting Ivan to come to them. Looks NNW to me.

Or maybe want to make sure it DOESN'T!

I have no bias as I won't be affected anyway but after the eclipse it did look like a NW jump to me. Maybe it's not, but is it so inconceivable that it may look that way to someone else? If I was in New Orleans, I'd be scared anyway and then if I saw any hint of a westward component after the eclipse, I'd probably scream "It's coming for me!" and get out as fast as I could. Maybe I'm exaggerating a bit here, but New Orleans could be the landfall spot and to assume that concern and interest is "wanting" it to come to them is just unreasonable.

[FloridaHawk82]

The following superimposed image shows the exact eye location for a 6 hour split....

http://www.customermotivators.com/IvanEyes.htm

The forecasted turn and curve, if it happens, will change this, but this is where Ivan would landfall IF he continued on his 6 hour directional.

Kokomo, you beat me to it AND with animation.... very cool work.

[wxman57]

Plot the vector and don't consider extra variables and looks like New Orleans to me. Forward momentum picks up and you can forget any delineation from this till after landfall.

Kokomo, your arrow doesn't go through the center of the eye on that 2nd image. The northern half of the eye is covered by cirrus, so you drew the arrow through the southern part of the eye. True extrapolation takes it east of New Orleans, and it IS continuing a gradual northward turn.

And yes, there are a few New Orleans fear-mongerers posting here (like Sean) trying to stir things up. I do think that they want Ivan to hit New Orleans. Try to tell them it will miss New Orleans and they get hysterical and call you names.

Looks more like Ivan will make landfall near Mobile Bay, or even on the east side of Mobile Bay.

[Anonymous]

No bias here either I am from Deep South Texas. I also think i jogged a little more to the west, at least to the naked eye. No scientific calculations here. Also If I was in LA right now I would pretty much be in a panic wanting and looking at every satellite loop there is and also thinking Oh My it is coming right towards me. This is not a storm that anyone wants knocking on the door. Lets try and give them all a break. It is our job right now to be reasonable, give good advice, and try and calm these folks down if needed. IMO!!!!!