Local Met said maybe N.O.

jes · #1 Postby **jes** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:05 am

Our local met just now said that since Ivan is now moving faster there is some worry that it may come in closer to New Orleans. Has anyone heard anything about this. I'm in Mobile

LowMug · #2 Postby **LowMug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:10 am

jes wrote:Our local met just now said that since Ivan is now moving faster there is some worry that it may come in closer to New Orleans. Has anyone heard anything about this. I'm in Mobile

sadly for me it makes sense...especially since he "would" arrive in that area before the trough could swing him to the northeast...

to be honest...I do not like that...and perhaps that could be worse for Mobile folks as well - depending on the angle of landfall

rtd2 · #3 Postby **rtd2** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:11 am

to be honest...I do not like that...and perhaps that could be worse for Mobile folks as well - depending on the angle of landfall

True remember GEORGES!

#4 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:12 am

jes wrote:Our local met just now said that since Ivan is now moving faster there is some worry that it may come in closer to New Orleans. Has anyone heard anything about this. I'm in Mobile

The same thing that's causing Ivan to pick up forward speed is the same thing that will draw him toward the MS/AL/FL state lines.
Don't don't me wrong it will a close call for LA.

LowMug · #5 Postby **LowMug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:16 am

Stormcenter wrote:
jes wrote:Our local met just now said that since Ivan is now moving faster there is some worry that it may come in closer to New Orleans. Has anyone heard anything about this. I'm in Mobile

The same thing that's causing Ivan to pick up forward speed is the same thing that will draw him toward the MS/AL/FL state lines.
Don't don't me wrong it will a close call for LA.

so wrong Stormcenter you are - I wish you were not...the reason he is moving faster is due to the ridge to the east strengthening more than forecast...

the trough has not impacted Sir Ivan yet or else he would have already started pulling due north or even east of north...he is still being guided around the periphery of the ridge and it is stronger than what has been forecast

yoda · #6 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:18 am

So LowMug, where do you think Ivan makes landfall?

#7 Postby **TSmith274** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:18 am

Just posted this on another thread, but it also applies here. Our local meteroligists in N.O. are pointing to upper level winds moving west to east out of Texas and along the Louisiana coastline. They're saying that this is what MAY nudge Ivan just enough to move it east of here. They're not even mentioning that trough anymore. Apparently, it's not gonna get here in time.

Sean in New Orleans · #8 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:18 am

They said the same thing here at the midnight update on ABC-26...we'll have to watch the track. He said with the accelerated speed that he may beat the SW flow that would help push the sytem east.

LowMug · #9 Postby **LowMug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:21 am

yoda wrote:So LowMug, where do you think Ivan makes landfall?

honestly...not wishingly...I feel (funny to say) near Waveland, Bay St. Louis, Long Beach areas or even further west towards the "mouth"...

eerily similar to Camille but hopefully does not intensify to her strength...

I boarded up the south side of my windows for a reason

Sean in New Orleans · #10 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:24 am

You guys keep talking about the Northern trough?! Every met in New Orleans has said that is certainly not coming into play yet---it's entirely too far away. The trough won't come into play according to them until Ivan is about 100 miles inland. I thought you were talking about the SW flow coming out of Texas---that's what may steer the system east before landfall...not the trough. Come on here...look at the water vapor image.

LowMug · #11 Postby **LowMug** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:27 am

I agree...the trough has not affected Ivan yet...if anything it will help pull him more west in the near term...

Two blocking highs...one is to the west and one is to the east...trough weakens one to the west therefore the one in the east pushes him towards the path of least resistance...

That trough is going to cause my house to get smoked

rtd2 · #12 Postby **rtd2** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:28 am

Sean and others this set up reminds me of georges (except for strength) remember Georges was tracking towards the Mouth of the river then at the 11th hour it Nudged north and we know the rest... I was in P'goula and for a cat 2 It was 8 hours of hell! :eek:

Sean in New Orleans · #13 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:55 am

This is a Mississippi storm right now, if you ask me.

timNms · #14 Postby **timNms** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:01 am

Just a non-professional view....I think Ivan is going to make landfall somewhere near Bay St. Louis. Unless the models are seeing something that I'm not, I just don't see him making a turn until after he's inland.

flightpath · #15 Postby **flightpath** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:08 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:This is a Mississippi storm right now, if you ask me.

I hate to see anyone get it but I hope you are right

camilletider · #16 Postby **camilletider** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:13 am

LowMug, How did your house or home site fare in Camille? Are you old enough to remember her?

rtd2 · #17 Postby **rtd2** » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:01 am

Just a non-professional view....I think Ivan is going to make landfall somewhere near Bay St. Louis. Unless the models are seeing something that I'm not, I just don't see him making a turn until after he's inland.

OH lord some of those "non-professional views" ARE THE MOST ACCURATE!

Local Met said maybe N.O.

Local Met said maybe N.O.

Re: Local Met said maybe N.O.

Re: Local Met said maybe N.O.

Re: Local Met said maybe N.O.

Who is online