Ivan weakening

[flashflood1998]

oh, and i am certainly not -removed- a return to cat5! where did you get that from?

[Lockhart]

Flashflood: this is a forum for the free expression of ideas about storms. As people are perfectly capable of forming their own opinions on such matters, it's an interesting give-and-take. Still, this is merely an informal discussion group. I would say that if anyone decides a matter of life and death based upon a chance comment or observation here instead of listening to the NHC, it is *they* who should be blamed, not the person expressing their opinion in an open forum.

[Hurrilurker]

If you have followed the history of this storm, you know it's been through many weakening phases, always followed up by a strengthening phase. So I think it's silly to write it off yet. Yes, it looks worse that it has at some points, but I disagree that it hasn't looked this bad in a long time. Just last morning it was asymmetrical and ragged with a completely occluded eye. Now it looks at least somewhat symmetrical, retains some intense convective patches, and has an eye; not the most impressive eye, but a clear, almost-closed eye nonetheless. It is weakened but before I call it dead I want to see what it looks like Wednesday morning. Fluctuations have been constant with Ivan, I'll believe it's done for when I see a lump of remnant clouds passing over land, but not before then. Still saying mid-Cat-3 at landfall, something that would prompt me to run as fast as I could if I lived anywhere near the Gulf Coast.

[flashflood1998]

thanks for the heads up on how all of this works, lockhart. while its true that this is a forum of free expression about storms, there has been more of move recently, thanks to our moderators, for more personal resposibility when posting. and, while you may feel that this is merely an informal discussion group, you can't ignore the numerous posts over the last 24 hours, where people are asking for advice regarding evacuation. yes, it's informal.. but it's also becoming an valuable source of information for people as well.

[Lockhart]

As for recent posts showing a lack of responsibility, I can't comment, as I haven't seen any such activity, although I have been absent from here most of today. I agree that this is a valuable source of information. On the other hand, to say that someone can't say they think a given hurricane is weakening based on the evidence they see is ridiculous. It's not like the people in this thread have said, "Ivan will be a tropical storm by the time it hits! Latest NHC confirms this!" People have merely noted, in my opinion, an apparent weakening of the storm. How much it may have weakened, and what effect if any that may have on the US, is complete speculation.

Also, when a layman makes a comment about his belief (with no substantiation), it should be obvious that one should take such a statement with a good dose of caution. If *I* were to warn anyone against anything, it would be against believing anything significantly at odds with the NHC.

[jj_frap]

thanks for the heads up on how all of this works, lockhart. while its true that this is a forum of free expression about storms, there has been more of move recently, thanks to our moderators, for more personal resposibility when posting. and, while you may feel that this is merely an informal discussion group, you can't ignore the numerous posts over the last 24 hours, where people are asking for advice regarding evacuation. yes, it's informal.. but it's also becoming an valuable source of information for people as well.

I agree.

And for people like me, whose closest experience to a hurricane was the remnants of Opal and a couple of thunderstorms where the wids hit 55 - 60 mph, it's fascinating to read and teached a lot.

I'm a newsaholic, especially for politics actually, and Ivan is so fascinating right now that I've not been following the Hong Kong election nearly as well as I would have otherwised.

[NorthGaWeather]

WV looks better in the last image, eyewall looks warmer and the temp profile is much better.

[mobilebay]

WV looks better in the last image, eyewall looks warmer and the temp profile is much better.

Sorry. Better as in stronger, or better as in Weaker?

[ColdFront77]

Edit: The IR satellite appeared to be NE/SW oriented at first... looking at it again it isn't. Geez.

[NorthGaWeather]

WV looks better in the last image, eyewall looks warmer and the temp profile is much better.

Sorry. Better as in stronger, or better as in Weaker?

As in its leveling off and getting its act together.

[mobilebay]

WV looks better in the last image, eyewall looks warmer and the temp profile is much better.

Sorry. Better as in stronger, or better as in Weaker?

As in its leveling off and getting its act together.

OK Thanks. also I got my hopes up last night when the west jog continued. However, after looking at the 00Z models, almost every one takes it due north after reaching between 88.0 and 88.5W. Ive never seen that kind of agreement. Outlier ETA (left)