Rige building to Ivan's north. Increase in forward speed.
Would somebody please explain to me why this wouldn't take Ivan further west instead of further east?
I don't get it.
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Bump, because I would like to know this as well. Everything I've heard tonight would seem to be bad news for points further west and yet the track is still towards Mobile and some people in LA are breathing easier. Would this ridge hold Ivan on a NNW track and wouldn't the faster movement than expected give Ivan less time to move due north? What did I miss?
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CYCLONE MIKE
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I am wondering the same thing. Our local met in SE LA said it was great news. His explanation was the disturbance over E. Texas that is moving NE will begin to pull Ivan that way tomorrow. Any thoughts of this playing out from someone more knowledgeable. Agree/Disagree. By hte way everything I read earlier tonight talked about High pressure building north of Ivan, what happened?
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Seele wrote:Bump, because I would like to know this as well. Everything I've heard tonight would seem to be bad news for points further west and yet the track is still towards Mobile and some people in LA are breathing easier. Would this ridge hold Ivan on a NNW track and wouldn't the faster movement than expected give Ivan less time to move due north? What did I miss?
They are probably not taking this information into account as of yet. From what I've seen, the official NHC track has consistantly been east of the other models until lately. I dunno, perhaps they see the ridge breaking down???
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dennis1x1
the dominant high is to the east of the storm....so, per nhc discussion just a few minutes ago (i guarantee they are taking everything into consideration yet) the path of the storm (least resistance) is around this high..
Last edited by dennis1x1 on Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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B-Bear wrote:But how is it going to break down when landfall is 24 hrs away, or less now that forward speed has picked up, and the trough is not even yet it place to begin eroding the high???
Certainly not my area or expertise; it has taken me forever just to get this down, but my understanding is that the ridge to the north is strong, allowing Ivan to steer NW. Add to it the increase in speed, and the turn may not happen in time. Add to it the warm waters it is going over and you have some intensification.
Where is Derek when you need him????
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dennis1x1 wrote:the dominant high is to the west of the storm....so, per nhc discussion just a few minutes ago (i guarantee they are taking everything into consideration yet) the path of the storm (least resistance) is around this high..
Dennis, I'm not sure what that means. Dominant high west (or is it NW??) of storm is going to turn it east? Is that what you mean?
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Stormcenter
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Mello1 wrote:dennis1x1 wrote:the dominant high is to the west of the storm....so, per nhc discussion just a few minutes ago (i guarantee they are taking everything into consideration yet) the path of the storm (least resistance) is around this high..
Dennis, I'm not sure what that means. Dominant high west (or is it NW??) of storm is going to turn it east? Is that what you mean?
I'm sure the NHC has taken into account the High and the upper level disturbance coming it from the west into account when the put there forecast track out at 10pm tonight.
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