NHC: Ivan IS creating his own......

[dixiebreeze]

environment. And there may be nothing that can stop him. This snip from the NHC 8 p.m. Disc.:

GULF OF MEXICO...
EAST OF 90W...THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS THIS EVENING ARE OBVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IVAN. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NWD TOWARDS THE N GULF COAST...SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
EWD-RETREATING ATLC RIDGE AND A RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE
PACIFIC ACROSS CNTRL MEXICO INTO THE W GULF. THE HURRICANE HAS
CREATED ITS OWN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH BROAD UPPER
RIDGING AND OUTFLOW TO THE E FROM N FLORIDA SWD TO CNTRL CUBA.
THE OUTFLOW IS MORE RESTRICTED TO THE W...WITH DRY AIR AND
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE BORDERING IVAN W OF 90W. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM IVAN HEADING INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S...AND THE LESSENING SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE DRY
AIR FROM BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THE LONGWAVE TROF NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW IVAN TO THE N...BUT THE
INCREASING SHEAR MAY BE TOO LATE TO WEAKEN THE STORM BEFORE
LANDFALL. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TIMING...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

[PTrackerLA]

Well if that excerpt doesn't keep everyone from N.O. to Pennsacola on guard I don't know what does!

[dixiebreeze]

Yes, that is one scary analysis.

[PTrackerLA]

Ivan does appear to be weakening on satellite though. Hopefully it will be a 3 or less by the time it makes landfall.

[B-Bear]

Ivan does appear to be weakening on satellite though. Hopefully it will be a 3 or less by the time it makes landfall.

Apparently we're looking at different satellites, because this doesn't look like weakening to me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

If anything, the NHC seems to keep backing off their weakening forecast and leaning more toward a "you folks in front of this thing better get the hell out of the way" forecast.

[dixiebreeze]

Strongly agree, B-Bear.

[Mello1]

Ivan does appear to be weakening on satellite though. Hopefully it will be a 3 or less by the time it makes landfall.

Apparently we're looking at different satellites, because this doesn't look like weakening to me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

If anything, the NHC seems to keep backing off their weakening forecast and leaning more toward a "you folks in front of this thing better get the hell out of the way" forecast.

You know? I hope these folk who are hunkering down in their homes know what they are doing....

[B-Bear]

Ivan does appear to be weakening on satellite though. Hopefully it will be a 3 or less by the time it makes landfall.

Apparently we're looking at different satellites, because this doesn't look like weakening to me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

If anything, the NHC seems to keep backing off their weakening forecast and leaning more toward a "you folks in front of this thing better get the hell out of the way" forecast.

You know? I hope these folk who are hunkering down in their homes know what they are doing....

Sure, they know what they're doing. They're rolling the dice and hoping that being wrong doesn't cost them their lives. When people have never lived through a cat 4/5 hurricane, they have no idea of the kind of danger they are putting themselves in. I would wager a bet that if you started placing calls to the residents of Grenada, Jamaica, Grand Cayman, and western Cuba, and asked them if given the choice they would ride it out again or get the hell out of Dodge, I bet you'd be hard presed to find anybody that would opt to roll the dice and stick it out again.

[chemist44]

you do not want to be in a cat 4 storm..we rode it out and will never do it again...cat 1 or 2 no problem...but the strength of a 3,4 or 5 exponentially increase in the amount of power and damage that occurs. Sit through 6 or 8 hours of 130+ winds...you will nener be the same...the devastation is complete and absolute..it's beyond mind boggling....Get the hell out of dodge....