ridge is north of ivan
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Derek Ortt
ridge is north of ivan
500mb obs confirm the sats this time for sure. There is a pronounced ridge north of Ivan
0 likes
-
MBismyPlayground
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 765
- Joined: Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:25 pm
- Location: myrtle beach, sc
- Contact:
-
Cape Verde
- Category 2
- Posts: 564
- Age: 70
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:53 pm
- Location: Houston area
Re: ridge is north of ivan
Derek Ortt wrote:500mb obs confirm the sats this time for sure. There is a pronounced ridge north of Ivan
The local mets here never mentioned a ridge to the north of Ivan. They said that Ivan would eventually turn north and then northeast. Ivan should also weaken a little before landfall.
Last edited by snowflake on Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Sean in New Orleans
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
- Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
- Contact:
Re: ridge is north of ivan
Derek Ortt wrote:500mb obs confirm the sats this time for sure. There is a pronounced ridge north of Ivan
Carl Arredondo confirmed this for us, as well, on the 6:00 local news. He says it depends on "how strong" this ridge is that will determine whether or not Ivan "goes around" this ridge and goes straight up and around it and through New Orleans or (if the ridge does weaken) it will take the projected NHC path to the MS/AL line. These things are STILL up in the air!! This is why I'm still very concerned about New Orleans and a possible landfall closer to the City. Time will tell....
0 likes
-
PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5280
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
zoeyann wrote:snowflake who are you watching? NO mets have been mentioning it alot today.
Lafayette channels 3 and 10. Maybe I missed when they talked about it at 5 o'clock.
Last edited by snowflake on Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Stormcenter
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ridge is north of ivan
Derek Ortt wrote:500mb obs confirm the sats this time for sure. There is a pronounced ridge north of Ivan
What does this mean in reference to the future track?
0 likes
-
weatherwoman
- Category 1
- Posts: 364
- Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 9:09 pm
- Location: Newport North Carolina
- Contact:
-
PurdueWx80
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
- Contact:
snowflake wrote:zoeyann wrote:snowflake who are you watching? NO mets have been mentioning it alot today.
Lafayette channels 3 and 10. Maybe I missed when they talked about it at 5 o'clock.
They wouldn't have known anything about it at 5 because the obs didn't come in to confirm it until 7 NO time. Also, tv mets aren't always going to be looking for these things - not to say that they are ignorant, but some of them aren't exactly the best meteorologists. Anyway, I'm glad to see the upper obs have confirmed my satellite interpretations from earlier. It's gonna be a long 24 hours for us all.
0 likes
-
southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Maybe a stupid question but if there's a ridge north of Ivan, how is he moving north into it? I've read numerous times..."hurricanes don't just move into strong ridges", etc. I would think he would move either east or west because of the ridge north of him, but that's not the forecast. Maybe someone could explain, please.
Just when I think I understand ridges and troughs a little better......
Just when I think I understand ridges and troughs a little better......
0 likes
-
PurdueWx80
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:33 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
- Contact:
southerngale wrote:Maybe a stupid question but if there's a ridge north of Ivan, how is he moving north into it? I've read numerous times..."hurricanes don't just move into strong ridges", etc. I would think he would move either east or west because of the ridge north of him, but that's not the forecast. Maybe someone could explain, please.
Just when I think I understand ridges and troughs a little better......
LOL...where do people come up w/ this emoticons!?!?! Anyway, it's not necessarily a strong ridge...the strong one is to the east of Ivan...which is why he never went barreling north into the southern FL peninsula. The extension of the ridge that comes north of Ivan is weak, but it's there, and it wasn't earlier today. It has since built in between Ivan and the trough that the majority thought would bring Ivan into the eastern FL panhandle. The weakest link, so to speak, is further west, which means that Ivan should continue on a NNW-NW trek until that ridge can break down. It remains to be seen whether Ivan will do this breaking, or if the deep trough over the Rockies will. I prefer to think that the trough out west will since it is large and at such a deep amplitude. If this trough doesn't dig anymore and simply rides over the eastern ridge, then Ivan will move quite slowly across the south. This is almost a nightmare to predict, in my opinion, as the features we are dealing w/ our subtle yet quite important. So, have I confused you any more or does this help any?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost and 257 guests