Evening Ivan forecast... slightly farther left

[Derek Ortt]

and stronger at landfall

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

[LowMug]

and stronger at landfall

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

Derek...I appreciate the pep talk...

[Scorpion]

. Lets hope this spares NOLA!

[Andy_L]

HOLY CRAP

[Sanibel]

That's right down the mouth of Mobile Bay...

[Derek Ortt]

graphic now at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

about 35-50 miles west of Mobile Bay, but they'll still get 100+ sustained in the bay on this track.

also, any shift left means NO, and to the right means Mobile

[calidoug]

Sanibel, no, it's west of Mobile Bay:

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

On a positive note, dry air appears to be eating into Ivan right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Convection warming and decreasing as Ivan sucks in all that dry air that followed the trough

[Sanibel]

Better check your fixes. 88.1W is on the west edge of Mobile Bay...

[Guest]

So what kind of winds will Pensacola get my son live in Milton Fl

[Brent]

88.1 W is Mobile Bay. I'm looking at the map right now.

[c5Camille]

Derec... that's still at my house...
please more to the east again... thanks..

[WeatherNLU]

Isn't 88.1 + 1.5 = 89.6?

[RonStallcup]

Derek,

Thanks for the information.

It's really helping me out.

Not out of danger yet.

Ron Stallcup,
Pensacola, Fla.

[rainstorm]

major inland flooding is going to be a big issue as well

[jes]

off the top of my head I think this is more Mississippi. The NHC forcast before was on the Miss/Al line. If they say they have moved the point West then they moved into Mississippi.

[Derek Ortt]

the previous landfall was at 88.1, the new one is at 88.7

[Sanibel]

Pascagoula, Mississippi, after crashing over a barrier island named Horn Island...

[vespersparrow]

So as this thing gets nearer, say it hits Pascagoula, how bad will it be in Pensacola wind wise? And for about how long?
I know ya can't really take a chance on saying anything wrong to people, but I would just like a close guestamation if ya don't mind.
I'm a nurse and evacuating is not an option for me. I have to stick this thing out (grrrr) but I'm just wanting to know what to expect. purdy pweeze?

Thanks again.
Safety to all.

[patsmsg]

I think Derek has been providing very accurate forecasts, and has been very good in explaining his reasoning.

I have not been on this board long, but I always seek his messages first.

Thanks, Derek.

[Buck]

Thats basically what I've been thinking it will do too.