Pressure down to 928...

[PurdueWx80]

URNT12 KNHC 142350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/2319Z
B. 24 DEG 33 MIN N
86 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2491 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 354 DEG 116 KT
G. 258 DEG 19 NM
H. 928 MB
I. 13 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 2992 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SW
M. C43
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 25
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z

;
...and the eyewall has shrunk...barely. Still partially open.

[Scorpion]

Do you think tonight he can do a sub 910?? Nah..

[mascpa]

when that eye wall closes and the eye begins to shrink as he has done before, I expect to see some additional intensification ... unfortunately.

[canegrl04]

And he has yet to reach the powderkeg known as the eddy

[LSU2001]

here we go again tonight. better put on some coffee

[MBismyPlayground]

And he has yet to reach the powderkeg known as the eddy

What is an "eddy"??

[soonertwister]

Why is that vortex message so old? 2201Z is about 6 EDT, or over 2 hours old.

There certainly is no open eyewall at this time. Strengthening convection is entirely and thickly wrapped around the core. The next vortex and max wind could indicate a significantly stronger storm, in spite of even another ongoing ERC.

[Scorpion]

I agree. I wonder when a new vortex message will come in.

[Brent]

Actually 2319z is 7:19pm EDT.

[Ivanova]

And he has yet to reach the powderkeg known as the eddy

What's an "eddy" ??

[canegrl04]

An eddy is an extremely warm pocket of water

[Matthew5]

I found this


296
URNT12 KNHC 142350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/2319Z
B. 24 DEG 33 MIN N
86 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2491 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 354 DEG 116 KT
G. 258 DEG 19 NM
H. 928 MB
I. 13 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 2992 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SW
M. C43
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 25

FYI: This thing means business. GFS shear was BS.
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z


Three things to watch for.

1# Is the warm eddy out in front of our hurricane...Which could bomb it like bret of 1999...Which hit south-central texas...

2# Is you notice the high clouds to the north of the hurricane...That is a outflow channel...As long as the shear stays that far away from the hurricane it should help the hurricane...

3# No more land mass to suck the convection away from the storm Cuba did this morning...

These are all very favable for development of this tropical cyclone...Plus the favable upper level enviroment...

[Matt]

It it the same Eddy as in white water rafting?

[clueless newbie]

While the water is warm and shear not that much of a factor (at least for now), there is plenty of very dry air and the SW side of Ivan seems to be affected. Also, the eye needs to close in order for Ivan to bomb.

I am not saying Ivan won't do that, but there is a chance he will not got any stronger.

[Matthew5]

I will eat crow for the next month if Ivan doe's not go below 925 millibars tomarrow...With a eye of at least 25 nmi or less...

[soonertwister]

The zone of dry air is disappearing. Look at the eastern Pacific satellite pics and you will see exploding convection in eastern Tx and all across Central America. The dry zone is going up in smoke, the convective center is thickly wrapped at this moment, and Ivan is getting stronger.

Welcome to the real world.

[canegrl04]

Didn't Andrew hit an eddy near the Carribean when he gained about 30mph in strength in just a few hours time?

[AussieMark]

andrew never went through the Caribbean.

He passed north of the lesser ANtilles and Greater Antilles.

and exploded as he reached the vicinity of the Bahamas

[dennis1x1]

cant believe some are seeing strengthening right now...definitely not the case....

latest recon has pressure up to 930...im sure that will rise some more in the coming hours...

sat pics show warming cloudtops, irregular eye......and increasing restriction to the southwest......

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-870W.jpg

[JtSmarts]

Hey dennis where did you find the latest recon I still see the old one at the nhc site.