Ivan a borderline Cat 4/5 again??!?!?!

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PurdueWx80
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Ivan a borderline Cat 4/5 again??!?!?!

#1 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:40 pm

URNT12 KNHC 142105
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/2046Z
B. 24 DEG 11 MIN N
86 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2488 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 124 DEG 147 KT
G. 037 DEG 24 NM
H. 929 MB
I. 11 C/ 3060 M
J. 18 C/ 3001 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SW
M. C45
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 06
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z

147 kt equates to about 152 mph at the surface....strong Cat 4.
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#2 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:41 pm

If that eye contracts like it's done in the past he'll crank right back up.....
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#3 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:42 pm

So much for all this shear...!! :eek:

Ivan looks like the second coming of HUGO....only this time its the Gulf Coast that will get the wrath...!
Last edited by Hurricane Cheese on Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:43 pm

And he is still heading for that very warm eddy south of the mouth of the Mississippi!! Not a good scenario at all!!!
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:45 pm

:shocked!:
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#6 Postby Guest » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:46 pm

How far are the Hurricane winds going out now...He looks much bigger now.
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#7 Postby nomolos » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:46 pm

:eek:
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#8 Postby dennis1x1 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:47 pm

at least they eye is open.......

theyve also made mention before that the dropsone could have caught a gust....
Last edited by dennis1x1 on Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:47 pm

105 miles for hurricane and 260 for tropical storm.
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#10 Postby Aquawind » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:48 pm

NCstateWOLF wrote:How far are the Hurricane winds going out now...He looks much bigger now.


105 mile Hurricane force 260 miles TS ....Biggie
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#11 Postby Scorpion » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:48 pm

Hmm really strengthened in winds. Although the MB still seems a bit high. Maybe they will go down after the winds, which is odd.
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#12 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:50 pm

Scorpion wrote:Hmm really strengthened in winds. Although the MB still seems a bit high. Maybe they will go down after the winds, which is odd.


Yeah, maybe it has to do w/ the strongest convection being in the NE eyewall now. It's hard to say if that was a gust or if they missed the center of the storm w/ the dropsonde. There could still be some dry air affecting Ivan, especially since the SW eyewall is apparently open. It's hard to tell from looking at a nadir view.
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#13 Postby MBryant » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:53 pm

How confident are they about the sheer just before landfall?
Is there a chance that it goes away?
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#14 Postby Buck » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:57 pm

If that eye closes while its strengthening like this, then we'll have a Cat 5 for the fourth time.
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#15 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:45 pm

:( :cry: :eek:
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#16 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:48 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 142220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/2201Z
B. 24 DEG 21 MIN N
86 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2487 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 233 DEG 126 KT
G. 144 DEG 22 NM
H. 929 MB
I. 17 C/ 3047 M
J. 18 C/ 3080 M
K. 15 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SE
M. C45
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 14
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z


Not much change except for an open eyewall on the SE side. The eye is very large right now!
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#17 Postby Scorpion » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:51 pm

Is this a sign of weakening or strengthening?
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#18 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:54 pm

Scorpion wrote:Is this a sign of weakening or strengthening?


STRENGTHENING!!!! :eek:
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#19 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:54 pm

Neither really....no change = no change. When the eyewall contracts (which it should at least 10 nautical miles), there is a chance the winds could revv up and the pressure may fall. Otherwise, the structure of the storm looks very good and the outflow is expanding to the NW more than earlier. To see rapid strengthening, there would have to be a blowup in deep cold convection around the edges though...cloud tops have warmed a bit in the last hour.
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#20 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:59 pm

Ivan has held up amazingly well considering all the predictions of shear and cooler temps weakening him.I think he will be close to cat 5 by early morning,then cat 5 when he gets over the eddy :eek:
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