Ivan Strength At Landfall

canegrl04 · #1 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:59 pm

What do you think now that the shear hasn't had much of an affect on Ivan and he is now in a strengthening phase?

canegrl04 · #2 Postby **canegrl04** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:00 pm

Fogot to add cat 5

mtm4319 · #3 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:01 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Fogot to add cat 5

#4 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:04 pm

CAT 4, WINDS 135-145 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 195 MPH

arlwx · #5 Postby **arlwx** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:08 pm

Just for the heck of it, stick in a cat 2 category also. Not likely at all IMO, but...

HurricaneBill · #6 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:10 pm

arlwx wrote:Just for the heck of it, stick in a cat 2 category also. Not likely at all IMO, but...

For "Doubtful" Dennis :lol:

mtm4319 · #7 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:11 pm

I'd say Cat. 2 is as likely as cat 5... maybe 5% each?

Cat 3 and Cat 4 45% each.

dennis1x1 · #8 Postby **dennis1x1** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:18 pm

surprise....i voted for cat 3..

independent product

--------------
cat 1: 5%
cat 2: 15%
cat 3: 55%
cat 4: 25%
cat 5: <1%

IamMrBen · #9 Postby **IamMrBen** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:22 pm

Mid cat 3 -- just a gut feeling. I know people are going to think that I'm strange for saying this, but I'd like to see what would happen if a cat. 5 suddenly ran into an artic high and began to snow itself out. Just think about how much snow would come out of it! I'd build myself an igloo and ride a tobaggan to work every day.

soonertwister · #10 Postby **soonertwister** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:28 pm

IamMrBen wrote:I know people are going to think that I'm strange for saying this, but I'd like to see what would happen if a cat. 5 suddenly ran into an artic high and began to snow itself out.

You'd have the beginnings of the first glacier in the deep south and many, many F5 thermal spouts.

IamMrBen · #11 Postby **IamMrBen** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:33 pm

soonertwister wrote:
IamMrBen wrote:I know people are going to think that I'm strange for saying this, but I'd like to see what would happen if a cat. 5 suddenly ran into an artic high and began to snow itself out.

You'd have the beginnings of the first glacier in the deep south and many, many F5 thermal spouts.

fair enough, guess that wouldn't necessarily be something to hope for, though I'm sure that people like Jeb from the Winter Weather forum would be tickled pink to see so much snow. :lol:

speaking of which, whatever happened to jeb? I don't see him posting much, if at all, anymore... (I've been lurking for quite some time on this board, very informative, intelligent discussion, and a great board!)

#12 Postby **Buck** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:53 pm

Cat 1 - 1%
Cat 2 - 8%
Cat 3 - 33%
Cat 4 - 40%
Cat 5 - 18%

#13 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:57 pm

If he maintains his current strength till he hits the warm eddy to his north I expect a high CAT4 at landfall.. That is he will be losing some strength as he comes in down from the CAT5 I expect to him to regain for awhile tonight and tomorrow. since he appears to be completing an ERC at this time I look for the intensity to start back up within a few hours.

mf_dolphin · #14 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:59 pm

I added the two requested options :-)

Scorpion · #15 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:59 pm

I wouldnt discount Cat 5 too much yet. Winds are already up to 152.

Skywatch_NC · #16 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:47 pm

Hopefully only a Cat 3...but will probably be higher unfortunately...the poor peeps who are going to be affected by it.

Eric

Ivan Strength At Landfall

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