Ivan's looking healthier all the time

[soonertwister]

All satellite loops are showing Ivan become more organized in every respect. Symetrical circulation is returning, and outflow is returning toward the west and southwest where it has been suppressed. On the visual image Ivan looks very symmetrical.

It appears from the latest images that Ivan is developing concentric eyewalls. Convection is getting colder near the core and the strongest convection band looks to be getting ready to fully wrap the core again.

It seems that Ivan's weakening may have been a bit premature. Ivan may be back at category 5 by the 0300Z advisory. We are bound to see another drop in pressure at the least.

[canegrl04]

I don't believe the much touted "weakening" in the Gulf spouted by NHC is going to happen.Ivan may be as strong as he was at landfall in US as he was over Cuba

[saracop]

I just heard on local radio with abc news talk to Stewart and he said it is weaking and should continueing to do so until land fall. what do yall think

[NorthGaWeather]

Stewart must not have read the 21z advisory since they strengthen it to 125 kt.

[Josephine96]

Maybe Stewart was on the planet Zordon when they did that advisory or something lol

[mtm4319]

Stewart must not have read the 21z advisory since they strengthen it to 125 kt.

They did? Link?

[Hurrilurker]

I doubt it will achieve Cat-5 again. Everything you said is true. soonertwister, he is looking much better than this morning, but the eye is now open on the north side in the last sat frame and I doubt there's enough heat content there to support Cat-5, especially if any of the forecast shear materializes. I say mid-Cat-3 at landfall.

[Scorpion]

Looks a lot better! Im thinking of maybe 150 mph for 11 PM if the pressure keeps dropping. Right now the pressure could easily support 150 mph however.

[canegrl04]

The 5pm NHC disc. said ivan will be AT LEAST cat 3 at landfall.SO it appears even they believe Ivan could very well be cat 4 by that time

[AL Chili Pepper]

Down to 929mb...but I notice a crack in the northern eyewall. Comments?

[Hurricane Cheese]

The crack is an ERC occuring...

Outer eyewall is replacing the inner...

Expect a large eye to form and beging to contract and intensify

[Buck]

I'm thinking it will be its current strength or 145 or so at landfall.

Buck's unofficial forcast: 135-145 mph at landfall.

[Scorpion]

Yea its starting, the new vortex shows 147 kt FL winds.

[SunnyThoughts]

*Looking up to the heavens* Pleaseeeeeeee let this thing weaken. I would like to have a home to come back too here in Pensacola, on the Ala/FLA border.

[Ixolib]

Yea its starting, the new vortex shows 147 kt FL winds.

What is starting??

[btangy]

I don't believe the much touted "weakening" in the Gulf spouted by NHC is going to happen

Ah, the mystery of intensity forecasting. One problem is that Ivan has a very large circulation envelope, so dry air has to travel further to disrupt the core giving the air more time to moisten up and the outflow pushes any shear away so we're not seeing that bursting effect typical of a sheared system.

SSTs are cooler right along the coast, but not enough to weaken Ivan significantly before landfall:

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graph ... 8/0-0-10/4

Close up of region:

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graph ... 8/0-0-10/7

The main player will be wind shear. Wind shear has been fairly persistent in the N Gulf though it has been retreating northward slowly. Still about 20knts of W shear over Ivan seems reasonable once it gets above 27N, which should be enough to make the W side less 'stormy.'

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shtZ.html

What could offset the wind shear is the warm eddy centered at 27-28N, so any true weakening might not occur until maybe 6 or so hours from landfall