UH OH---Anyone watching #11 models???

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UH OH---Anyone watching #11 models???

#1 Postby Anonymous » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:30 am

East coast...Might wanna take a looksee at the GFDL and UKMET :wink:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif

This was mentioned in the 5pm EDT NHC discussion...

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND
HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
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GNWeather
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#2 Postby GNWeather » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:32 am

Better yet, take a look at the 00Z EC, S FL goes under the gun again, but with a much weaker Hurricane it appears.
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wxwatcher2
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#3 Postby wxwatcher2 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:50 am

Oh please, this is not even forecast to make it to hurricane strength.

Sure, it might be a problem for S Fla but who knows.
I think at this point, we're ready to over analize just about every
rain storm in the Atlantic, Carribean or Gulf of Mexico.

Sieze the day.
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#4 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:53 am

wxwatcher2 wrote:Oh please, this is not even forecast to make it to hurricane strength.

Sure, it might be a problem for S Fla but who knows.
I think at this point, we're ready to over analize just about every
rain storm in the Atlantic, Carribean or Gulf of Mexico.

Sieze the day.


Yes it is....on the 4th day.
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#5 Postby southtexasgal » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:57 am

lol i agree...at this point, it seems to me that all eyes are on florida for every storm. I know it would be a very big story for three major storms to hit the same state in one yr and that would bring great ratings for the tv stations...but these poor people have been through enough already... i dont knoe for certain what twc is saying at the moment because i stopped watching them, but i do know all day long they were forcasting florida to take a direct hit, even when nhc had the strike probabilities for louisiana higher then florida.
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#6 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 14, 2004 5:59 am

Heads up Texas!

JB thinks TD #11 soon-to-be "Mean Jeanne" may actually threaten Texas in about a week. Says Jeanne will threaten south Florida/Florida Straits and continue westbound even further west past Ivan. But also acknowledges this idea has little model support.

Will be interesting to watch.
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#7 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:50 am

What is this about?!!!?!

Jeanne to make to TX will have to jump through massive hurdles.

I normally dont request what Joe B says but can you drop a few hints from Joe B Disc??

Our TX hurricane season is fast fading as CLimo shows
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#8 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:14 am

I don't think so, look at the history of storms in that position at this time of year. More than likey, we will have a recurving storm off the SC coast. This will be the greatest threat to the OBX if any.
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#9 Postby flair » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:20 am

When did he say this? Just yesterday he was convinced that this was a threat further up the east coast, and said absolutely nothing about Texas.
He's already flip-flopped twice on Ivan. I usually like Joe's perspective on things, but he's getting like a politician now.
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#10 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:23 am

He's already flip-flopped twice on Ivan. I usually like Joe's perspective on things, but he's getting like a politician now.

Find me anyone who hasnt "Flip Flopped" on ivan.. lol.. He has been a bear
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#11 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:26 am

Yeah, I usually can catch his early discusiion on radio here in the morning. I did not hear it this morning. I have trouble believing that he is calling for a TX storm??? Has anyine looked at WV loops this morning? witht he high amplitudes in place everything will be moving N and S. So any storms will follow.
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#12 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:37 am

He is saying it will head to Texas thru SOFL....Models are starting to agree!
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#13 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:39 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:He is saying it will head to Texas thru SOFL....Models are starting to agree!


he is saying td 11....well either he is going to bust big time or nhc is. i have never seen in one season this much disagreement on tracks beyond 5 days.
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#14 Postby tronbunny » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:43 am

mmmmmm, spaghetti!
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#15 Postby dolphinslady » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:47 am

mmmmmm, spaghetti!


Too funny, ROFLMAO...so true! :lol:
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#16 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:14 am

...and perhaps maybe I should have stressed that JB said the pattern is shaping up so that TD #11 is more likely to eventually be forced westward.

I will leave this detailed talk up to the pro mets on the board but apparently the pattern for the southern US is likely be more summerlike in the next two weeks. Consequently the storm would be a threat to S Fla and points westward.

He did acknowledge his "flip-flop" on this system saying he was more convinced his initial thoughts were off.

Yeah, it does seem like a stretch given climatology for the western GOM this time of year ... but hey, has this season been "normal?"
"
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