More good news from new vortex=931 mbs,126KT NE QUAD

[cycloneye]

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URNT12 KNHC 141251
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1251Z
B. 23 DEG 04 MIN N
   86 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2484 M
D. 65 KT
E. 050 DEG 71 NM
F. 143 DEG 126 KT
G. 056 DEG 029 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 10 C/ 3072 M
J. 17 C/ 3052 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. C30
M. OPEN SOUTH
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF984 3409A IVAN OB 11
   MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 1242Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 245/7NM FROM
   FL CNTR. EYE CLOUD FILLED WITH SOME OPEN AREAS.


[rdcrds]

I still say like i did days ago this will be a CAT 2 when it hts.

[Aquawind]

Yep..Definately on a weakening trend..Still Nasty Though..

[rtd2]

I still say like i did days ago this will be a CAT 2 when it hts.

Very possible looks like some shearing and dry air will dig in

[LowMug]

don't be over optimistic...it could very well be because of the ERCs that have been occurring all night

[soonertwister]

Not to mention that Ivan has been passing close to land, which has helped to erode the overall circulation. People should continue to believe that Ivan will be a major hurricane at landfall, even a category four.

Maybe it won't be, but to use the current intensity as a decision factor in what preparations people should take regarding their risks from Ivan, well that's just plain dumb. Remember, intensity forecasting is the most difficult task that the NHC has, the one that has the least predictability. We are talking about what has been a historic and deadly storm here. Nobody should take Ivan lightly in any sense.

[CaptinCrunch]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Ivan is going through ERC phase, and by the sat loop Ivan is pushing off any dry air that is coming in contact with him. There is still allot of very warm water for him to pass over in the next 48 hrs to keep up a strong cat 4 rating.

[Dave C]

This reminds me a lot of Floyd as it moved towards Carolinas. After being cat 4-5 in Bahamas it encountered dry air and SW shear and every time recon investigated the pressure was higher and winds less. Steve Lyons made a very good point recently. " Cat 4 and 5 storms need near perfect environment to maintain thieir status" the one difference with Ivan vs Floyd is warmer water in central Gulf than waters near Carolinas (except gulf stream). Let's hope this weakening continues!!!