Good news=930mbs,112KT NW QUAD,open south

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cycloneye
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Good news=930mbs,112KT NW QUAD,open south

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:29 am

Code: Select all

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/1136Z
B. 22 DEG 52 MIN N
   85 DEG 59 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2481 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NA NM
F. 048 DEG 112 KT
G. 303 DEG 033 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 10 C/ 3052 M
J. 16 C/ 3059 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. C24
M. OPEN SOUTH
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF984 3409A IVAN OB 04
   MAX FL WIND 112 KT NW QUAD 1126Z. MAX FL TEMP 20C 291/15NM
   FROM FL CNTR. EYE CLOUD FILLED
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WeatherNLU
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#2 Postby WeatherNLU » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:31 am

Beautiful!
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Andy_L
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#3 Postby Andy_L » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:35 am

is this REAL weakening or just an ERC again????
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:35 am

WooHoo..Finally significant pressure drops that are reflected on the Satelite..
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#5 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:35 am

Ivan will probably be cat 1 or 2 by landfall
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PTPatrick
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#6 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:37 am

Could this be temporary? There is still an area of high heat content ahead of it and I am told the shear will relax...could this blow back up before landfall?
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jes
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#7 Postby jes » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:40 am

pray, pray, pray
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#8 Postby ALhurricane » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:40 am

Ivan is entering into an area of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and lower oceanic heat content. I think that is contributing to some of the weaking we are seeing right now.

It still has to pass over a warm water eddie in the central Gulf which has me concerned.

There is also a lot of dry air in the northwest Gulf...that could also help to bring Ivan down in intensity some.
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#9 Postby Hyperstorm » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:40 am

PTPatrick wrote:Could this be temporary? There is still an area of high heat content ahead of it and I am told the shear will relax...could this blow back up before landfall?


Doubt it...there's no model support or perfect conditions to have a category 5 striking land.

Category 5 = Nearly impossible
Category 4 = Unlikely
Category 3 = Possible
Category 2 = Probable
Category 1 = Hopefully
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dennis1x1

#10 Postby dennis1x1 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:50 am

good breakdown hyper.........and great news that the forecast weakening is happening....gives confidence that the even more agressive weakening may happen per intensity models that did so well with frances.
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#11 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:59 am

I think the Ivan is trying to adjust itself to it's less favorable enviorment. The western side doesn't look as eroded as it was earlier and it's become more symetrical again. I expect at least a Cat 3 at landfall.
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