So will the shear in the gulf weaken Ivan or not?

logybogy · #1 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:37 pm

What's this talk about the shear in the gulf dissipating?

Will this mean Ivan could hit the U.S. as a Cat 5?

There was supposedly shear over Ivan the past 24 hours and we saw what happened ito Ivan's strength. It held its own AS A CAT 5.

dennis1x1 · #2 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:09 pm

the shear over ivan was not forecast to begin until now through 24 hours.....then subsiding..then increasing dramatically in 48 hours...

ivan has been in ideal conditions for the past 2 days....not sheared.....not forecast to be sheared.....ivan was forecast to be a cat 5 during the past 24 hours up to 3 days ago.

flyingphish · #3 Postby **flyingphish** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:39 pm

Westerlies and dry air will keep a muzzle on Ivan. Sort of like.. Frances. They start to loose identity as they approach latitudes north of say 27 or so. N.GOM lies at 30. (give or take) You will get a storm but somewhat diminished me thinks. Farewell !

dennis1x1 · #4 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:40 pm

nope..thats not a general case......it may be the case here....but not generally. its all about timing..and luckily very strong shear is expected before landfall.....

sea oat · #5 Postby **sea oat** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:41 pm

i hope you are right phish but this is still a major hurrican and will be at landfall i think

rdcrds · #6 Postby **rdcrds** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:43 pm

i have been saying for 3 days now that it will be a cat 2 maybe a low 3 at landfall.I would say 110 is my call if i had to make 1.

Between shear and colder waters ivan is not going to be anything like he is now.

dennis1x1 · #7 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:44 pm

everyone thought the same with frances....and the shear is forecast to be much stronger...not that the results will be the same...but frances was a massive strong cat 4 and was cut to a cat 2 in a few hours....at least the potential is there...

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:46 pm

What effect will ivan have on the next trough that would effect Jeane or whatever it will be called?

logybogy · #9 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:46 pm

On the other hand, none of the models predicted the shear for Frances. All of the models predicted her hitting FL as a strong Cat 4.

So, it may very well be that the shear the models are predicting never materializes at all.

Intensity forecasts by and large from the NHC are not worth the paper they are written on.

dennis1x1 · #10 Postby **dennis1x1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 11:48 pm

the ships intensity model definitely predicted the weakening in Frances 48 hours before the fact......

So will the shear in the gulf weaken Ivan or not?

So will the shear in the gulf weaken Ivan or not?

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